Solar Cycle 24 NASA Predictions

Document Sample
Solar Cycle 24 NASA Predictions Powered By Docstoc
					Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA and Solar Cycle Predictions
W. Dean Pesnell

Project Scientist, Solar Dynamics Observatory
Member, Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

1

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA’s mandate is to build, fly, and operate spacecraft in the hostile environment of space. Our success comes from trying to understand what can go wrong and building and operating appropriate payloads. Things go right, things go worng, but the mandate is still there.

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

2

Goddard Space Flight Center

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

3

Goddard Space Flight Center

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

4

The Solar Cycle in the Corona
Goddard Space Flight Center

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

5

Goddard Space Flight Center

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

6

Goddard Space Flight Center

The Solar Dynamics Observatory

SDO, the first mission of Living With a Star, will provide the data needed to understand the solar convection zone and how magnetic field is assembled and dissipated in the solar atmosphere.

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

7

Goddard Space Flight Center

Backup Slides Follow

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

8

Goddard Space Flight Center

Radiation Hazards must be Understood to be Mitigated



Radiation hazard is different for every orbit and duration
– Incident particles range from cosmic rays to highly-relativistic electrons to solar protons



Missions can have a 10-year leadtime, the Heliophysics Roadmap shows missions out to 2020!



An understanding of the hazard in each of various study orbits may determine how the mission is designed
Near-real-time knowledge of radiation hazard is also required
– This requires short-term predictions of activity



Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

9

Goddard Space Flight Center

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

10

Goddard Space Flight Center

F10.7 Observations and Predicts
Observations 350 Predicted in Advance

300

250

Radio Flux, F10.7

Observations
200

150

100

# 21
50

#2 2

# 23

# 24

Sc ha tte n e t a l. Pre d ic te d in a d va nc e

0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Space Weather Workshop, April 2007, W. Dean Pesnell, GSFC

11


				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Stats:
views:102
posted:8/3/2008
language:English
pages:11
Description: W. Dean Pesnell, Project Scientist, Solar Dynamics Observatory (April 2007) Introduction to Solar Cycle 24, first predictions of onset and importance to NASA
Joel Raupe Joel Raupe Principal Investigator http://www.lunarpioneer.com
About Principal Investigator (PI): Lunar Pioneer, applied lunar science "virtual" think tank organized in 1994.