Vulnerability on the Roof of the World: Resilience to Climate Change and Natural
Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau
Julia Klein, Emily Yeh, Kelly Hoppin, Yonten Nyima, Jia Hu, Randall Boone, Kathleen
Galvin, Shichang Kang
Pastoralists on the Tibetan Plateau are a marginalized people living in an extreme
environment who may be especially vulnerable as a suite of novel stresses push their
socioenvironmental system towards critical thresholds. Temperatures are increasing
several times more than the global average while the frequency and severity of severe
snowstorms are predicted to increase. Pastoralists are also experiencing reduced mobility
and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods
that include a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing,
and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and
ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events within the context
of changing natural resource policies in China.
The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and
spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika). We established the
experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region (4,870 m) and are monitoring
microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, carbon fluxes and stable isotopes. We are
investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it is likely to cross critical thresholds,
and how resilient this system may be to predicted climate and land use changes. Semi-
structured interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the
ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climatic and ecological
change and vulnerability to snow disasters. To integrate our ecological and social findings,
we are coupling an ecosystem model to an agent-based pastoral household model.
Our results from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that
Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant species and primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to
warming. Snow additions can partially mediate this effect. Herders throughout this
region share common knowledge about both climatic and ecological changes, but appear
to be more closely attuned to ecological shifts than to gradual climate changes. Herder
perceptions about climate trends often contradict local weather station data, but herders
tend to be in strong agreement that grassland health has declined.
These results suggest that rangeland degradation has occurred, and that climate warming
may be one driver responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve
ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological
system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. These vulnerabilities may be further
enhanced by restrictions on mobility and grazing stipulated by new grassland policies, but
also reduced through the effects of other aspects of socioeconomic change. By integrating
ecological experimental work with modeling, surveys, and qualitative interviews, this
project takes into account the sociopolitical and ecological complexities of resilience, a
necessary step toward sustainable solutions for the future.