Introduction: A closer examination of elections and the economy
This spreadsheet aggregates data from the IMF and from some electionmap website, since apparently it was impossible
to find decent sources for elections by year within the span of 3+ hours. Using this data we examine the relation
between parties elected and the economies at the time.
Reference:
Data Source:
tion: A closer examination of elections and the economy
aggregates data from the IMF and from some electionmap website, since apparently it was impossible
urces for elections by year within the span of 3+ hours. Using this data we examine the relation
elected and the economies at the time.
International Monetary Fund (www.imf.org) and some other website (uselectionatlas.org).
Uh, somewhere on their site.
Model
We examined data regarding various economical issues (as well as election results) over the past 28 years in the
USA. We then constructed a scoring mechanism that rated each presidential term by how well it did compared
to other presidents in the past 28 years, percentage wise. We then took the sum of these scores (Popular Vote,
Electoral Vote, Inflation, Debt, and Unemployment) and plotted a chart that showed score versus whether or not
the current party stayed in power for the next election.
Assumptions
We assume the IMF data is accurate. We also assume that between google, wikiped*a, and more importantly
electionmap.org/com/whatever that the general consensus on who got how many votes is accurate.
We also assume that elections in the USA are "legitimate and fair", e.g, devoid of electronic voting machines,
badly designed ballots, and dead voters.
Change in Inflation & Unemployment During
Presidency +$2,000,000,000,000.0
+3.00% +$1,800,000,000,000.0
+2.00% +$1,600,000,000,000.0
+1.00%
+$1,400,000,000,000.0
Percent Change
+0.00%
+$1,200,000,000,000.0
-1.00%
-2.00% +$1,000,000,000,000.0
-3.00%
-4.00%
-5.00%
-6.00%
George H. W. George W.
Bill Clinton Ronald Reagan
Bush Bush
Democrat Republican
Average Inflation Change +0.16% -1.06% -0.17% -4.70%
Average Unemployment
-1.76% +2.00% +0.70% -0.84%
Change
Popular Vote Breakdown
100% 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Average of Opponent's % Votes
40%
Average of % of Vote
30%
20%
10%
0%
Bill Clinton George H. W. George W. Bush Ronald Reagan
Bush
Democrat Republican
"Score" versus change of party in
"Score" versus change of party in
1.2
(1.38) - Bush Sr.
1
y1 = -0.169ln(x) + 0.4623
Change in Party for next election "chance"
0.8
0.6
y2 = -0.1215x + 0.6188
Chance for change in power in 2008
0.4
0.2
(1.02) - Bush Jr. (1st Term)
0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Axis Title
Republican Party Score for 2008 1.29 y1 41.88% y2 46.17%
Conclusion
We conclude that based on current trends, it is plausible that 1) electoral college vote splitting
may get closer to 50/50 in future elections, 2) popular votes will follow the current trend of
staying roughly 50/50 (possible trend to becoming nearly exactly that?), 3) the national debt
will only grow larger and larger - AND - that republican candidates seem to lower inflation but
raise debt and unemployment.
These results also reinforce questions regarding recent elections (2000, 2004), and the role of the
'electoral college'.
Based on our model for parties in power and our scoring mechanism, the 2008 election is at best undecided -- but
seems to lean in the direction of the republican party maintaining control for at least one more presidential term.
Future Work
It may be worth examining other methods of scoring, as well as the impact of "scandals" on whether the current
party maintains control in the next election. It is probably worth looking at
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php) to see how they did things too.
Average Change in National Debt
+$2,000,000,000,000.00
+$1,800,000,000,000.00
+$1,600,000,000,000.00
+$1,400,000,000,000.00
+$1,200,000,000,000.00
+$1,000,000,000,000.00
+$800,000,000,000.00 Total
+$600,000,000,000.00
+$400,000,000,000.00
+$200,000,000,000.00
+$0.00
Bill Clinton George H. W. George W. Bush Ronald Reagan
Bush
Democrat Republican
Electoral Vote Breakdown
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Average of Opponent's Electoral %
40%
Average of % Electoral
30%
20%
10%
0%
Bill Clinton George H. W. George W. Ronald Reagan
Bush Bush
Democrat Republican
us change of party in power
us change of party in power
(2.74) - Clinton (2nd Term)
Past Elections
2008 Election
Linear (Past Elections)
Log. (Past Elections)
(2.33) - Clinton (1st Term) (3.12) - Reagan (1st Term)
(3.47) - Regan (2nd Term)
2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
y-bar 44.03%
ing
t
ut
of the
t best undecided -- but
ore presidential term.
whether the current
o.
Country
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
United States
Subject Descriptor Units Scale
Gross domestic product, constant prices Annual percent change
Gross domestic product, current prices National currency Billions
Gross domestic product per capita, current prices National currency Units
Inflation, average consumer prices Annual percent change
Unemployment rate Percent of total labor force
Population Persons Millions
General government balance National currency Billions
General government balance Percent of GDP
General government structural balance National currency Billions
General government structural balance Percent of potential GDP
General government net debt National currency Billions
General government net debt Percent of GDP
General government gross debt National currency Billions
General government gross debt Percent of GDP
Current account balance U.S. dollars Billions
Country/Series-specific Notes
See notes for: Gross domestic product, constant prices (National currency).
Definition: Gross domestic product at market prices Source: Haver analytics Latest actual data: 2007 Primary domestic curren
See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency) Population (Persons).
See notes for: Inflation, average consumer prices (Index, 2000=100).
Definition: Unemployment rate, national definition Source: Haver analytics Latest actual data: 2007 Primary domestic currenc
Definition: Population Source: Haver analytics Latest actual data: 2007 Primary domestic currency: U.S. dollars Data last upda
GFS Manual Used: 2001 Basis of Recording: Noncash (accrual) Includes: Central Government, State Government, Local Gover
See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency) General government balance (National currency).
GFS Manual Used: 2001 Basis of Recording: Noncash (accrual) Includes: Central Government, State Government, Local Gover
See notes for: General government structural balance (National currency).
GFS Manual Used: 2001 Basis of Recording: Noncash (accrual) Includes: Central Government, State Government, Local Gover
See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency) General government net debt (National currency).
GFS Manual Used: 2001 Basis of Recording: Noncash (accrual) Includes: Central Government, State Government, Local Gover
See notes for: Gross domestic product, current prices (National currency) General government gross debt (National currency
Definition: Balance on current transactions excluding exceptional financing Source: Haver analytics Latest actual data: 2007 P
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
-0.229 2.519 -1.936 4.519 7.188 4.131 3.467
2,789.53 3,128.43 3,255.03 3,536.68 3,933.18 4,220.25 4,462.83
12,255.08 13,606.84 14,022.55 15,098.09 16,644.33 17,701.24 18,549.30
13.502 10.378 6.158 3.16 4.368 3.528 1.944
7.175 7.617 9.708 9.6 7.508 7.192 7
227.622 229.916 232.128 234.247 236.307 238.416 240.593
-83.25 -69.925 -157.75 -198.4 -186.85 -211.65 -234.275
-2.984 -2.235 -4.846 -5.61 -4.751 -5.015 -5.249
-174.222 -50.812 -86.569 -133.747 -167.399 -206.801 -235.084
-6.148 -1.596 -2.493 -3.598 -4.208 -4.889 -5.272
846.073 793.743 959.238 1,164.16 1,344.17 1,571.48 1,818.03
30.33 25.372 29.469 32.917 34.175 37.237 40.737
1,215.45 1,220.06 1,429.02 1,665.63 1,921.34 2,240.77 2,530.65
43.572 38.999 43.902 47.096 48.849 53.096 56.705
2.317 5.029 -5.531 -38.684 -94.318 -118.131 -147.176
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
3.375 4.133 3.541 1.878 -0.169 3.324 2.673
4,739.48 5,103.75 5,484.35 5,803.08 5,995.93 6,337.75 6,657.40
19,524.04 20,834.40 22,178.17 23,207.90 23,662.66 24,681.91 25,590.97
3.578 4.1 4.791 5.419 4.216 3.042 2.97
6.175 5.492 5.258 5.617 6.85 7.492 6.908
242.751 244.968 247.286 250.047 253.392 256.777 260.146
-203.375 -181.7 -176.775 -246.075 -294.65 -365.65 -328.925
-4.291 -3.56 -3.223 -4.24 -4.914 -5.769 -4.941
-210.463 -206.929 -215.593 -271.27 -262.989 -333.165 -295.458
-4.456 -4.112 -4.01 -4.724 -4.305 -5.191 -4.376
2,033.79 2,263.20 2,440.71 2,657.59 2,952.69 3,340.38 3,681.32
42.912 44.344 44.503 45.796 49.245 52.706 55.297
2,770.99 3,020.95 3,241.27 3,548.56 3,928.08 4,304.81 4,646.75
58.466 59.191 59.1 61.15 65.512 67.923 69.798
-160.661 -121.159 -99.485 -78.965 2.895 -50.079 -84.816
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
4.02 2.504 3.7 4.498 4.175 4.45 3.66
7,072.23 7,397.65 7,816.83 8,304.33 8,746.98 9,268.43 9,816.98
26,857.44 27,762.90 28,996.24 30,438.61 31,689.37 33,196.97 34,773.78
2.596 2.805 2.937 2.338 1.547 2.193 3.367
6.1 5.592 5.408 4.942 4.5 4.217 3.967
263.325 266.458 269.581 272.822 276.022 279.195 282.31
-251.875 -232.225 -170.725 -66.1 37.925 79 159
-3.561 -3.139 -2.184 -0.796 0.434 0.852 1.62
-239.628 -207.508 -152.394 -76.521 0.355 2.509 57.7
-3.373 -2.773 -1.935 -0.925 0.004 0.028 0.604
3,878.66 4,002.01 4,159.99 4,160.73 4,041.04 3,837.45 3,597.26
54.844 54.098 53.218 50.103 46.199 41.403 36.643
4,878.00 5,113.92 5,386.43 5,525.63 5,502.03 5,529.61 5,317.24
68.974 69.129 68.908 66.539 62.902 59.661 54.164
-121.612 -113.571 -124.773 -140.396 -213.532 -299.819 -417.429
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0.751 1.599 2.51 3.637 3.07 2.871 2.189
10,127.95 10,469.60 10,960.75 11,685.93 12,433.93 13,194.70 13,843.83
35,505.43 36,340.28 37,685.03 39,811.63 41,969.76 44,118.01 45,845.48
2.817 1.596 2.298 2.668 3.375 3.226 2.858
4.742 5.783 5.992 5.542 5.067 4.608 4.642
285.251 288.099 290.852 293.53 296.259 299.077 301.967
-39.35 -396.675 -529.775 -508.7 -446.525 -344.75 -345.017
-0.389 -3.789 -4.833 -4.353 -3.591 -2.613 -2.492
-74.041 -384.085 -503.324 -505.198 -457.007 -367.41 -353.188
-0.736 -3.655 -4.563 -4.324 -3.686 -2.798 -2.554
3,603.79 4,022.44 4,534.09 5,034.26 5,443.04 5,712.15 6,088.93
35.583 38.42 41.367 43.08 43.776 43.291 43.983
5,440.45 5,877.92 6,508.91 7,053.76 7,556.22 7,930.25 8,421.74
53.717 56.143 59.384 60.361 60.771 60.102 60.834
-384.701 -459.636 -522.115 -640.157 -754.852 -811.483 -738.636
2008 Estimates Start After
0.517 2007
14,195.03 2007
46,541.18 2007
3.018 2007
5.375 2007
304.999 2007
-634.171 2007
-4.468 2007
-553.407 2007
-3.827 2007
6,803.98 2007
47.932 2007
8,978.07 2007
63.248 2007
-614.703 2007
Year GDP-CP $GDP-CP GDP/PC Inflation Unemployment Rate
1980 -0.229 $ 2,789,525,000,000.00 $ 12,255.08 13.50% 7.18%
1981 2.519 $ 3,128,425,000,000.00 $ 13,606.84 10.38% 7.62%
1982 -1.936 $ 3,255,025,000,000.00 $ 14,022.55 6.16% 9.71%
1983 4.519 $ 3,536,675,000,000.00 $ 15,098.09 3.16% 9.60%
1984 7.188 $ 3,933,175,000,000.00 $ 16,644.33 4.37% 7.51%
1985 4.131 $ 4,220,250,000,000.00 $ 17,701.24 3.53% 7.19%
1986 3.467 $ 4,462,825,000,000.00 $ 18,549.30 1.94% 7.00%
1987 3.375 $ 4,739,475,000,000.00 $ 19,524.04 3.58% 6.18%
1988 4.133 $ 5,103,750,000,000.00 $ 20,834.40 4.10% 5.49%
1989 3.541 $ 5,484,350,000,000.00 $ 22,178.17 4.79% 5.26%
1990 1.878 $ 5,803,075,000,000.00 $ 23,207.90 5.42% 5.62%
1991 -0.169 $ 5,995,925,000,000.00 $ 23,662.66 4.22% 6.85%
1992 3.324 $ 6,337,750,000,000.00 $ 24,681.91 3.04% 7.49%
1993 2.673 $ 6,657,400,000,000.00 $ 25,590.97 2.97% 6.91%
1994 4.02 $ 7,072,225,000,000.00 $ 26,857.44 2.60% 6.10%
1995 2.504 $ 7,397,650,000,000.00 $ 27,762.90 2.81% 5.59%
1996 3.7 $ 7,816,825,000,000.00 $ 28,996.24 2.94% 5.41%
1997 4.498 $ 8,304,325,000,000.00 $ 30,438.61 2.34% 4.94%
1998 4.175 $ 8,746,975,000,000.00 $ 31,689.37 1.55% 4.50%
1999 4.45 $ 9,268,425,000,000.00 $ 33,196.97 2.19% 4.22%
2000 3.66 $ 9,816,975,000,000.00 $ 34,773.78 3.37% 3.97%
2001 0.751 $ 10,127,950,000,000.00 $ 35,505.43 2.82% 4.74%
2002 1.599 $ 10,469,600,000,000.00 $ 36,340.28 1.60% 5.78%
2003 2.51 $ 10,960,750,000,000.00 $ 37,685.03 2.30% 5.99%
2004 3.637 $ 11,685,925,000,000.00 $ 39,811.63 2.67% 5.54%
2005 3.07 $ 12,433,925,000,000.00 $ 41,969.76 3.38% 5.07%
2006 2.871 $ 13,194,700,000,000.00 $ 44,118.01 3.23% 4.61%
2007 2.189 $ 13,843,825,000,000.00 $ 45,845.48 2.86% 4.64%
2008 0.517 $ 14,195,032,000,000.00 $ 46,541.18 3.02% 5.38%
Population Balance Balance % Structural Balance
227,622,000 -$83,250,000,000.00 -0.30% -$174,222,000,000.00
229,916,000 -$69,925,000,000.00 -0.22% -$50,812,000,000.00
232,128,000 -$157,750,000,000.00 -0.48% -$86,569,000,000.00
234,247,000 -$198,400,000,000.00 -0.56% -$133,747,000,000.00
236,307,000 -$186,850,000,000.00 -0.48% -$167,399,000,000.00
238,416,000 -$211,650,000,000.00 -0.50% -$206,801,000,000.00
240,593,000 -$234,275,000,000.00 -0.52% -$235,084,000,000.00
242,751,000 -$203,375,000,000.00 -0.43% -$210,463,000,000.00
244,968,000 -$181,700,000,000.00 -0.36% -$206,929,000,000.00
247,286,000 -$176,775,000,000.00 -0.32% -$215,593,000,000.00
250,047,000 -$246,075,000,000.00 -0.42% -$271,270,000,000.00
253,392,000 -$294,650,000,000.00 -0.49% -$262,989,000,000.00
256,777,000 -$365,650,000,000.00 -0.58% -$333,165,000,000.00
260,146,000 -$328,925,000,000.00 -0.49% -$295,458,000,000.00
263,325,000 -$251,875,000,000.00 -0.36% -$239,628,000,000.00
266,458,000 -$232,225,000,000.00 -0.31% -$207,508,000,000.00
269,581,000 -$170,725,000,000.00 -0.22% -$152,394,000,000.00
272,822,000 -$66,100,000,000.00 -0.08% -$76,521,000,000.00
276,022,000 $37,925,000,000.00 0.04% $355,000,000.00
279,195,000 $79,000,000,000.00 0.09% $2,509,000,000.00
282,310,000 $159,000,000,000.00 0.16% $57,700,000,000.00
285,251,000 -$39,350,000,000.00 -0.04% -$74,041,000,000.00
288,099,000 -$396,675,000,000.00 -0.38% -$384,085,000,000.00
290,852,000 -$529,775,000,000.00 -0.48% -$503,324,000,000.00
293,530,000 -$508,700,000,000.00 -0.44% -$505,198,000,000.00
296,259,000 -$446,525,000,000.00 -0.36% -$457,007,000,000.00
299,077,000 -$344,750,000,000.00 -0.26% -$367,410,000,000.00
301,967,000 -$345,017,000,000.00 -0.25% -$353,188,000,000.00
304,999,000 -$634,171,000,000.00 -0.45% -$553,407,000,000.00
Structural Balance % Net Debt Net Debt % Gross-Debt
-6.15% $ 846,073,000,000.00 30.33% $ 1,215,453,000,000.00
-1.60% $ 793,743,000,000.00 25.37% $ 1,220,061,000,000.00
-2.49% $ 959,238,000,000.00 29.47% $ 1,429,015,000,000.00
-3.60% $ 1,164,161,000,000.00 32.92% $ 1,665,630,000,000.00
-4.21% $ 1,344,174,000,000.00 34.18% $ 1,921,335,000,000.00
-4.89% $ 1,571,476,000,000.00 37.24% $ 2,240,771,000,000.00
-5.27% $ 1,818,030,000,000.00 40.74% $ 2,530,646,000,000.00
-4.46% $ 2,033,791,000,000.00 42.91% $ 2,770,988,000,000.00
-4.11% $ 2,263,203,000,000.00 44.34% $ 3,020,953,000,000.00
-4.01% $ 2,440,713,000,000.00 44.50% $ 3,241,266,000,000.00
-4.72% $ 2,657,590,000,000.00 45.80% $ 3,548,563,000,000.00
-4.31% $ 2,952,686,000,000.00 49.25% $ 3,928,078,000,000.00
-5.19% $ 3,340,377,000,000.00 52.71% $ 4,304,809,000,000.00
-4.38% $ 3,681,322,000,000.00 55.30% $ 4,646,745,000,000.00
-3.37% $ 3,878,657,000,000.00 54.84% $ 4,878,002,000,000.00
-2.77% $ 4,002,006,000,000.00 54.10% $ 5,113,920,000,000.00
-1.94% $ 4,159,992,000,000.00 53.22% $ 5,386,431,000,000.00
-0.93% $ 4,160,729,000,000.00 50.10% $ 5,525,630,000,000.00
0.00% $ 4,041,044,000,000.00 46.20% $ 5,502,025,000,000.00
0.03% $ 3,837,449,000,000.00 41.40% $ 5,529,606,000,000.00
0.60% $ 3,597,258,000,000.00 36.64% $ 5,317,236,000,000.00
-0.74% $ 3,603,787,000,000.00 35.58% $ 5,440,445,000,000.00
-3.66% $ 4,022,443,000,000.00 38.42% $ 5,877,916,000,000.00
-4.56% $ 4,534,094,000,000.00 41.37% $ 6,508,905,000,000.00
-4.32% $ 5,034,262,000,000.00 43.08% $ 7,053,763,000,000.00
-3.69% $ 5,443,038,000,000.00 43.78% $ 7,556,221,000,000.00
-2.80% $ 5,712,154,000,000.00 43.29% $ 7,930,248,000,000.00
-2.55% $ 6,088,929,000,000.00 43.98% $ 8,421,738,000,000.00
-3.83% $ 6,803,980,000,000.00 47.93% $ 8,978,069,000,000.00
Gross-Debt % of GDP Current Account Balance
44% $2,317,000,000.00
39% $5,029,000,000.00
44% -$5,531,000,000.00
47% -$38,684,000,000.00
49% -$94,318,000,000.00
53% -$118,131,000,000.00
57% -$147,176,000,000.00
58% -$160,661,000,000.00
59% -$121,159,000,000.00
59% -$99,485,000,000.00
61% -$78,965,000,000.00
66% $2,895,000,000.00
68% -$50,079,000,000.00
70% -$84,816,000,000.00
69% -$121,612,000,000.00
69% -$113,571,000,000.00
69% -$124,773,000,000.00
67% -$140,396,000,000.00
63% -$213,532,000,000.00
60% -$299,819,000,000.00
54% -$417,429,000,000.00
54% -$384,701,000,000.00
56% -$459,636,000,000.00
59% -$522,115,000,000.00
60% -$640,157,000,000.00
61% -$754,852,000,000.00
60% -$811,483,000,000.00
61% -$738,636,000,000.00
63% -$614,703,000,000.00
President Party Term Start Term End Final GDP
Jimmy Carter Democrat 1976 1980 $ 2,789,525,000,000.00
Ronald Reagan Republican 1980 1984 $ 3,933,175,000,000.00
Ronald Reagan Republican 1984 1988 $ 5,103,750,000,000.00
George H. W. Bush Republican 1988 1992 $ 6,337,750,000,000.00
Bill Clinton Democrat 1992 1996 $ 7,816,825,000,000.00
Bill Clinton Democrat 1996 2000 $ 9,816,975,000,000.00
George W. Bush Republican 2000 2004 $ 11,685,925,000,000.00
George W. Bush Republican 2004 2008 $ 14,195,032,000,000.00
Average:
% Change in GDP Inflation At Start Inflation at End Inflation Change
0.00% N/A 13.50% N/A
141.00% 13.50% 4.37% -9.13%
129.76% 4.37% 4.10% -0.27%
124.18% 4.10% 3.04% -1.06%
123.34% 3.04% 2.94% -0.11%
125.59% 2.94% 3.37% +0.43%
119.04% 3.37% 2.67% -0.70%
121.47% 2.67% 3.02% +0.35%
126.34% 4.85% 4.63% -1.50%
Unemployment at Start Unemployment at End Unemployment Change
N/A 7.18% N/A
7.18% 7.51% +0.33%
7.51% 5.49% -2.02%
5.49% 7.49% +2.00%
7.49% 5.41% -2.08%
5.41% 3.97% -1.44%
3.97% 5.54% +1.58%
5.54% 5.38% -0.17%
6.08% 5.99% -0.26%
National Debt at Start National Debt at End Change in National Debt
N/A $ 1,215,453,000,000.00 N/A
$ 1,215,453,000,000.00 $ 1,921,335,000,000.00 +$705,882,000,000.00
$ 1,921,335,000,000.00 $ 3,020,953,000,000.00 +$1,099,618,000,000.00
$ 3,020,953,000,000.00 $ 4,304,809,000,000.00 +$1,283,856,000,000.00
$ 4,304,809,000,000.00 $ 5,386,431,000,000.00 +$1,081,622,000,000.00
$ 5,386,431,000,000.00 $ 5,317,236,000,000.00 -$69,195,000,000.00
$ 5,317,236,000,000.00 $ 7,053,763,000,000.00 +$1,736,527,000,000.00
$ 7,053,763,000,000.00 $ 8,978,069,000,000.00 +$1,924,306,000,000.00
$ 4,031,425,714,285.71 $ 4,649,756,125,000.00 +$1,108,945,142,857.14
Initial Population # Votes Total Voters % of Vote % of people voted
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
227,622,000 43,903,230 86,509,678 50.75% 38.01%
236,307,000 54,455,472 92,653,233 58.77% 39.21%
244,968,000 48,886,597 91,594,686 53.37% 37.39%
256,777,000 44,909,806 104,423,923 43.01% 40.67%
269,581,000 47,400,125 96,275,401 49.23% 35.71%
282,310,000 50,460,110 105,417,475 47.87% 37.34%
293,530,000 62,040,610 122,293,548 50.73% 41.66%
258,727,857 50,293,707 99,881,135 50.53% 38.57%
Electoral Votes % Electoral Opponent Votes Opponent's % Votes
N/A N/A N/A N/A
489 90.89% 35,480,115 41.01%
525 97.58% 37,577,352 40.56%
426 79.18% 41,809,476 45.65%
370 68.77% 39,104,550 37.45%
379 70.45% 39,198,755 40.72%
271 50.37% 51,003,926 48.38%
286 53.16% 59,028,439 48.27%
392 72.92% 43,314,659 43.15%
Opponent's Electoral Votes Opponent's Electoral % Was VP? Terrorism?
N/A N/A No Yes
49 9.11% No No
13 2.42% No No
111 20.63% Yes No
168 31.23% No Yes
159 29.55% No No
266 49.44% No Yes
251 46.65% No No
145 27.00%
President Party Term Start Term End Final GDP % Change in GDP
Bill Clinton Democrat 1992 1996 7.8168E+12 1.233375409
Bill Clinton Democrat 1996 2000 9.817E+12 1.255877546
Republican
George H. W. Bush 1988 1992 6.3378E+12 1.241783003
R
George W. Bushepublican 2004 2008 1.4195E+13 1.214711886
R
George W. Bushepublican 2000 2004 1.1686E+13 1.190379419
Ronald ReaganRepublican 1980 1984 3.9332E+12 1.409980194
Ronald ReaganRepublican 1984 1988 5.1038E+12 1.297615794
Inflation At Start Inflation at End Inflation Change Unemployment at Start
0.03042 0.02937 -0.00105 0.07492
0.02937 0.03367 0.0043 0.05408
0.041 0.03042 -0.01058 0.05492
0.02668 0.03018 0.0035 0.05542
0.03367 0.02668 -0.00699 0.03967
0.13502 0.04368 -0.09134 0.07175
0.04368 0.041 -0.00268 0.07508
Unemployment at End Unemployment Change National Debt at Start National Debt at End
0.05408 -0.02084 4.30481E+12 5.38643E+12
0.03967 -0.01441 5.38643E+12 5.31724E+12
0.07492 0.02 3.02095E+12 4.30481E+12
0.05375 -0.00167 7.05376E+12 8.97807E+12
0.05542 0.01575 5.31724E+12 7.05376E+12
0.07508 0.00333 1.21545E+12 1.92134E+12
0.05492 -0.02016 1.92134E+12 3.02095E+12
Change in National Debt Initial Population # Votes Total Voters % of Vote
1.08162E+12 256777000 44909806 104423923 0.430072006
-69195000000 269581000 47400125 96275401 0.4923389
1.28386E+12 244968000 48886597 91594686 0.533727437
1.92431E+12 293530000 62040610 122293548 0.507308938
1.73653E+12 282310000 50460110 105417475 0.47866931
7.05882E+11 227622000 43903230 86509678 0.507495011
1.09962E+12 236307000 54455472 92653233 0.587734181
% of people voted Electoral Votes % Electoral Opponent Votes Opponent's % Votes
0.406671637 370 0.687732342 39104550 0.374478844
0.357129772 379 0.704460967 39198755 0.407152342
0.373904698 426 0.791821561 41809476 0.456461808
0.416630491 286 0.531598513 59028439 0.482678277
0.373410347 271 0.503717472 51003926 0.483827999
0.380058509 489 0.908921933 35480115 0.410128853
0.392088398 525 0.975836431 37577352 0.405569787
Opponent's Electoral Votes Opponent's Electoral % Was VP? Terrorism?
168 0.312267658 No Yes
159 0.295539033 No No
111 0.206319703 Yes No
251 0.466542751 No No
266 0.494423792 No Yes
49 0.091078067 No No
13 0.024163569 No No
Presidents Start of First Term Average Inflation Change
Republican 1980 -2.16%
Ronald Reagan 1980 -4.70%
George H. W. Bush 1988 -1.06%
George W. Bush 2000 -0.17%
Democrat 1992 +0.16%
Bill Clinton 1992 +0.16%
Grand Total 1980 -1.50%
Presidents Average Inflation ChangeAverage Unemployment Change
Democrat +0.16% -1.76%
Bill Clinton +0.16% -1.76%
Republican -2.16% +0.35%
George H. W. Bush -1.06% +2.00%
George W. Bush -0.17% +0.70%
Ronald Reagan -4.70% -0.84%
Grand Total -1.50% -0.26%
Presidents Average Change in National Debt
Democrat +$506,213,500,000.00
Bill Clinton +$506,213,500,000.00
Republican +$1,350,037,800,000.00
George H. W. Bush +$1,283,856,000,000.00
George W. Bush +$1,830,416,500,000.00
Ronald Reagan +$902,750,000,000.00
Grand Total +$1,108,945,142,857.14
Presidents Average of % of people voted
Democrat 38.19%
Bill Clinton 38.19%
Republican 38.72%
George H. W. Bush 37.39%
George W. Bush 39.50%
Ronald Reagan 38.61%
Grand Total 38.57%
Presidents Average of % of Vote Average of Opponent's % Votes
Democrat 46.12% 39.08%
Bill Clinton 46.12% 39.08%
Republican 52.30% 44.77%
George H. W. Bush 53.37% 45.65%
George W. Bush 49.30% 48.33%
Ronald Reagan 54.76% 40.78%
Grand Total 50.53% 43.15%
Presidents Average of % of Vote Average of Opponent's % Votes
Democrat 46.12% 39.08%
Bill Clinton 46.12% 39.08%
Republican 52.30% 44.77%
George H. W. Bush 53.37% 45.65%
George W. Bush 49.30% 48.33%
Ronald Reagan 54.76% 40.78%
Grand Total 50.53% 43.15%
Presidents Average of % Electoral Average of Opponent's Electoral %
Democrat 69.61% 30.39%
Bill Clinton 69.61% 30.39%
Republican 74.24% 25.65%
George H. W. Bush 79.18% 20.63%
George W. Bush 51.77% 48.05%
Ronald Reagan 94.24% 5.76%
Grand Total 72.92% 27.00%
Year Sum of Change in Party Average of Opponent's Electoral %
2000 0 49.44%
2004 46.65%
1988 1 20.63%
1992 0 31.23%
1996 1 29.55%
1980 0 9.11%
1984 0 2.42%
MAX 49.44%
MIN 2.42%
DIFF 47.03%
Average Unemployment Change Average Change in National Debt
+0.35% +$1,350,037,800,000.00
-0.84% +$902,750,000,000.00
+2.00% +$1,283,856,000,000.00
+0.70% +$1,830,416,500,000.00
-1.76% +$506,213,500,000.00
-1.76% +$506,213,500,000.00
-0.26% +$1,108,945,142,857.14
Average of % Electoral Average of Opponent's Electoral %
69.61% 30.39%
69.61% 30.39%
74.24% 25.65%
79.18% 20.63%
51.77% 48.05%
94.24% 5.76%
72.92% 27.00%
Average of Opponent's % Votes Average of % Electoral
48.38% 50.37%
48.27% 53.16%
45.65% 79.18%
37.45% 68.77%
40.72% 70.45%
41.01% 90.89%
40.56% 97.58%
48.38% 97.58%
37.45% 50.37%
10.93% 47.21%
Average of % of people voted Average of % of Vote
38.72% 52.30%
38.61% 54.76%
37.39% 53.37%
39.50% 49.30%
38.19% 46.12%
38.19% 46.12%
38.57% 50.53%
Average of % of Vote Average of % of people voted
47.87% 37.34%
50.73% 41.66%
53.37% 37.39%
43.01% 40.67%
49.23% 35.71%
50.75% 38.01%
58.77% 39.21%
58.77% 41.66%
43.01% 35.71%
15.77% 5.95%
Average of Opponent's % Votes Average of % Electoral
44.77% 74.24%
40.78% 94.24%
45.65% 79.18%
48.33% 51.77%
39.08% 69.61%
39.08% 69.61%
43.15% 72.92%
% Votes / % Opponent's Votes % Votes Electoral / % Opponent Electoral
98.93% 101.88%
105.10% 113.94%
116.93% 383.78%
114.85% 220.24%
120.92% 238.36%
123.74% 997.96%
144.92% 4038.46%
144.92% 4038.46%
98.93% 101.88%
45.98% 3936.58%
Average of Opponent's Electoral %
25.65%
5.76%
20.63%
48.05%
30.39%
30.39%
27.00%
Average of Change in National Debt Average of Inflation Change
Average of Unemployment Change Vote Score
+1,736,527,000,000.00 1.58% -0.70% 68.27%
+1,924,306,000,000.00 -0.17% 0.35% 72.53%
+1,283,856,000,000.00 2.00% -1.06% 80.69%
+1,081,622,000,000.00 -2.08% -0.11% 79.25%
-69,195,000,000.00 -1.44% 0.43% 83.44%
+705,882,000,000.00 0.33% -9.13% 85.39%
+1,099,618,000,000.00 -2.02% -0.27% 100.00%
+1,924,306,000,000.00 2.00% 0.43%
-69,195,000,000.00 -2.08% -9.13%
+1,993,501,000,000.00 4.08% 9.56%
Electoral Score Debt Score Unemployment Score Inflation Score Total Score
2.52% 9.42% 10.41% 11.80% 1.02
2.89% 0.00% 53.06% 0.84% 1.29
9.75% 32.13% 0.00% 15.56% 1.38
5.59% 42.27% 100.00% 5.59% 2.33
6.06% 100.00% 84.26% 0.00% 2.74
25.35% 61.12% 40.82% 100.00% 3.13
102.59% 41.37% 98.33% 7.30% 3.50