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Presentation by Uri Dadush by worldbank


									The Doha Development
        An Update
        World Bank

     December 1, 2005
                  Key Messages
   A successful Doha Round is very important from a
    development perspective
   Hong Kong Ministerial December 13-18, 2005 originally
    expected to agree negotiating modalities for agriculture and
    non-agricultural market access (NAMA), plus progress in
    services, rules, trade facilitation and development
   WTO Members now recalibrating expectations for Hong
    Kong, but maintaining the initial ambition for the Round
   Hong Kong “an intermediary stage on the way to full
    modalities”; aim to agree on “a range of numbers – the
    outer parameters – in the July 2004 frameworks, and
    corresponding texts in the rule-making part of the
    • Draft Declaration issued November 26
   Sights must not be lowered if Doha is to be a true
    development round
   There is a lot of work to do before end 2006
    Important progress has already
              been made
   Conditional agreement on elimination
    of export subsidies
   Narrowing of Singapore Issues to
    trade facilitation only
   TRIPS waiver on access to medicines
   July 2004 Framework Agreement
    elements on agriculture
   Development at the center of a trade
            Outstanding issues
   Key issues remain to be resolved
    • Agriculture, in particular market access
         Cotton
    • Developing countries, especially MICs,
      on NAMA
    • Services
         Including benchmarks
    • Development dimension
   Complementary agenda on aid for
        Agricultural Market Access
Proposal     Cut on          Sensitive    Tariff Cap
             highest         products %   Dev’ed/
             tariffs %                    Dev’ing
US                90                 1       75/x

EU                60                 8     100/150

G20               75           < or = 1    100/150

G10           45/50*            10/15*        NO

             * Numbers indicative only
Large cuts are needed to reduce actual
   trade distorting domestic support
    $US billion

    40                                          93%*


                  EU            US              Japan

            *percentages refer to degree of overhang
   Definition of the formula
    • Agreement on Swiss formula, but not on coefficients
   Flexibility for developing countries
    • Some groups seek special treatment
          Newly acceded, small and vulnerable
    • Differentiation among developing countries
          EU proposes the same coefficient for developed and
           advanced developing countries (with some additional
           flexibilities) - but this is very controversial
    • Participation in sectoral negotiations?
          E.g., jewels, sports equipment, pharmaceuticals
    • Treatment of unbound tariffs
          How to calculate the base rate for reductions?
   69 offers, plus 30 revised (EU25 counted as 1),
    but low quality and lack of momentum
   Mandatory quantitative benchmarks for
    coverage of commitments in service sectors?
    • Opposed by many developing countries
   Plurilateral negotiations
    • Mandatory participation benchmarks?
   Overall objectives for modes
   GATS rules
    • Broad agreement to continue negotiations and
      intensify efforts
               Trade Facilitation
   Solid progress to date
    • Large number of proposals, broad participation
   Special and differential treatment (SDT), capacity
    building (CB) and technical assistance (TA)
    integral parts of any agreement
    • Link between TA and CB and implementation of
      commitments will be a critical part of the negotiations in
    • Expectations that negotiations in this area will move
      from Uruguay Round-style “best endeavor” approach to
      commitments of secure financing for implementation
    • Role of international organizations, including Bank
   Where next?
    • Text based negotiations on Articles V, VIII and X of
      GATT 1994?
               Development Issues
   Proposals to strengthen SDT
    • Focus on 28 (of the 88 proposals) agreed in principle for Cancùn, PLUS
      5 agreement-specific proposals from LDCs
   Duty and quota free access for all LDC exports
    • Resistance from countries concerned with preference erosion
    • Benefits require flexible rules of origin
   Concerns re preference erosion and net food importers
    • Losses may be less than expected: offsetting gains; time
      period for implementation; utilization of existing preferences;
      likely price rises for food
    • Serious problem for a few countries, who will require increased
      international assistance – aid for trade- to cope with
      transitional adjustment costs
    • Adjustment costs should not be a reason to deny the benefits
      of liberalization to the vast majority of developing countries
           Extended transition periods for affected products raise risk
            reducing gains from the round
                      Aid for Trade
   Important complement to – but not substitute for
    – an ambitious Doha Round
   Integrated Framework (IF)
    • Increased funding, plus enhanced ability to leverage
      much larger bilateral and multilateral resources
          Including to address infrastructure constraints
    • Geneva-based task force of donors and LDCs working on
      a new governance structure, for agreement in April 2006
          Contributions likely pending agreement on governance
   Adjustment
    • Diagnostics and assistance
   Regional/cross-country needs
    • Exploring need for additional mechanisms
          Aid for Trade cont’d
   LDC proposal
    • Enhanced IF; adjustment facility
      managed by the WTO; infrastructure
      fund; debt relief, swaps and buy-back
   Increased focus in bilateral programs
   Scope to make progress in Hong
    • Proposals in Nov 26 draft Declaration
   Some highlights
    • Debate on clarification of disciplines on
      anti-dumping and subsidies (including
      fisheries subsidies) expected to become
      more intense in 2006
    • Progress on transparency procedures
      concerning RTAs, but limited progress
      on strengthening systemic disciplines
   November 2005, WTO Members recalibrate
    expectations for Hong Kong, but maintain the
    initial ambition for the Round
    • The hardest decisions of the Doha Round will now need
      to be made in early 2006
    • End of 2006 target for completion (US TPA expiry, June
   There is too much at stake to lower sights on
   Bank will continue to contribute through
     • Advocacy for an ambitious, pro-development Round
     • Research on trade policy and reform
     • Aid for trade, including cooperation on enhanced IF
     • TA and CB at global and country levels, including greater
       integration of trade into country programs

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