Phdvxulqj Frqwdjlrq=
Frqfhswxdo dqg Hpslulfdo Lvvxhv
Nulvwlq Iruehv= PLW0Vordq Vfkrro ri Pdqdjhphqw
Urehuwr Uljrerq= PLW0Vordq Vfkrro ri Pdqdjhphqw dqg QEHU
Suholplqdu| Gudiw4
Ghfhpehu 46/ 4 mxvwli|lqj pxo0
wlodwhudo lqwhuyhqwlrq> dqg xqghuvwdqglqj krz vkrfnv duh sursdjdwhg lqwhuqdwlrqdoo|1 Vhfwlrq
6 eulh | vxuyh|v wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh rq frqwdjlrq dqg Vhfwlrq 7 vxppdul}hv wkh hfrqr0
phwulf vwudwhjlhv wudglwlrqdoo| xvhg wr whvw iru lwv h{lvwhqfh1 Ghvslwh wkh udqjh ri vwudwhjlhv
xwlol}hg/ yluwxdoo| doo ri wklv zrun frqfoxghv wkdw frqwdjlrq rffxuuhg gxulqj uhfhqw qdqfldo
fulvhv1 Vhfwlrq 8/ krzhyhu/ glvfxvvhv vhyhudo sureohpv zlwk wklv hpslulfdo zrun/ qdpho| khw0
hurjhqhlw|/ hqgrjhqhlw|/ dqg rplwwhg yduldeoh eldv1 Whvwv iru frqwdjlrq zklfk dgguhvv wkhvh
sureohpv dfwxdoo| qg olwwoh hylghqfh ri vkliw0frqwdjlrq gxulqj uhfhqw qdqfldo fulvhv1 Lq0
vwhdg/ wkhvh sdshuv dujxh wkdw pdq| frxqwulhv duh kljko| lqwhughshqghqw lq doo vwdwhv ri wkh
4
zruog/ dqg wkhvh vwurqj furvv0frxqwu| olqndjhv gr qrw fkdqjh vljqlfdqwo| gxulqj shulrgv ri
fulvlv1 Wkh qdo vhfwlrq ri wkh sdshu glvfxvvhv wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkhvh qglqjv dqg vxjjhvwv
vhyhudo gluhfwlrqv iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk1
5 Ghqlwlrqv dqg Plvfrqfhswlrqv
Lq wkh prqwk diwhu wkh 4 mxvwli|lqj pxowlodwhudo lqwhuyhqwlrq>
dqg glhuhqwldwlqj ehwzhhq ydulrxv wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv1
8
6 Wkhruhwlfdo Olwhudwxuh
Wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh rq krz vkrfnv duh sursdjdwhg lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| lv h{whqvlyh1 Wklv
zrun lv zhoo0vxppdul}hg lq wkh lqwurgxfwru| fkdswhu wr wklv vhw ri sdshuv14 Iru wkh sxusrvh
ri wklv sdshu/ krzhyhu/ lw lv xvhixo wr glylgh wklv eurdg vhw ri wkhrulhv lqwr wzr jurxsv= fulvlv0
frqwlqjhqw dqg qrq0fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv1 Fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv duh wkrvh zklfk
h{sodlq zk| wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv fkdqjh gxulqj d fulvlv dqg wkhuhiruh zk| furvv0pdunhw
olqndjhv lqfuhdvh diwhu d vkrfn1 Qrq fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv dvvxph wkdw wudqvplvvlrq
phfkdqlvpv duh wkh vdph gxulqj d fulvlv dv gxulqj pruh vwdeoh shulrgv/ dqg wkhuhiruh furvv0
pdunhw olqndjhv gr qrw lqfuhdvh diwhu d vkrfn1 Dv d uhvxow/ hylghqfh ri vkliw0frqwdjlrq zrxog
vxssruw wkh jurxs ri fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv/ zkloh qr hylghqfh ri frqwdjlrq zrxog vxssruw
wkh jurxs ri qrq0fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv1
614 Fulvlv0Frqwlqjhqw Wkhrulhv
Fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw wkhrulhv ri krz vkrfnv duh wudqvplwwhg lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| fdq eh glylghg lqwr
wkuhh phfkdqlvpv= pxowlsoh htxloleuld> hqgrjhqrxv oltxlglw|> dqg srolwlfdo hfrqrp|1 Wkh
uvw phfkdqlvp/ pxowlsoh htxloleuld/ rffxuv zkhq d fulvlv lq rqh frxqwu| lv xvhg dv d vxqvsrw
iru rwkhu frxqwulhv1 Iru h{dpsoh Pdvvrq ^4 hqgrjhqrxv0oltxlglw| vkrfnv fdxvlqj d sruwirolr uhfrpsrvlwlrq> dqg sr0
olwlfdo hfrqrp| dhfwlqj h{fkdqjh udwh uhjlphv1 Ghvslwh wkh glhuhqw dssurdfkhv dqg prghov
xvhg wr ghyhors wkhvh wkhrulhv/ wkh| doo vkduh rqh fulwlfdo lpsolfdwlrq= wkh wudqvplvvlrq phfk0
dqlvp lq wkh shulrg diwhu wkh lqlwldo fulvlv lv lqkhuhqwo| glhuhqw wkdq wkdw ehiruh wkh vkrfn1
Wkh fulvlv fdxvhv d vwuxfwxudo vkliw/ vr wkdw vkrfnv duh sursdjdwhg yld d fkdqqho zklfk grhv
qrw h{lvw lq vwdeoh shulrgv1 Wkhuhiruh/ hdfk ri wkhvh wkhrulhv frxog h{sodlq wkh h{lvwhqfh ri
frqwdjlrq dv ghqhg lq Vhfwlrq BB1
615 Qrq Fulvlv0Frqwlqjhqw Wkhrulhv
Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wkh uhpdlqghu ri wkh wkhrulhv h{sodlqlqj krz vkrfnv frxog eh sursdjdwhg
lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| zrxog qrw jhqhudwh frqwdjlrq1 Wkhvh wkhrulhv dvvxph wkdw wudqvplvvlrq phfk0
dqlvpv diwhu dq lqlwldo vkrfn duh qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw wkdq ehiruh wkh fulvlv1 Lqvwhdg/
dq| odujh furvv0pdunhw fruuhodwlrqv diwhu d vkrfn duh d frqwlqxdwlrq ri olqndjhv zklfk h{lvwhg
ehiruh wkh fulvlv1 Wkhvh fkdqqhov duh riwhq fdoohg uhdo olqndjhv vlqfh pdq| +dowkrxjk qrw
doo, duh edvhg rq hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov1 Wkhvh wkhrulhv fdq eh glylghg lqwr irxu eurdg
fkdqqhov= wudgh> srolf| frruglqdwlrq> frxqwu| uhhydoxdwlrq> dqg udqgrp djjuhjdwh vkrfnv1
Wkh uvw wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp/ wudgh/ frxog zrun wkurxjk vhyhudo uhodwhg hhfwv16
Li rqh frxqwu| ghydoxhv lwv fxuuhqf|/ wklv zrxog kdyh wkh gluhfw hhfw ri lqfuhdvlqj wkh
frpshwlwlyhqhvv ri wkdw frxqwu|*v jrrgv/ srwhqwldoo| lqfuhdvlqj h{sruwv wr d vhfrqg frxqwu|
dqg kxuwlqj grphvwlf vdohv zlwklq wkh vhfrqg frxqwu|1 Wkh lqlwldo ghydoxdwlrq frxog dovr kdyh
wkh lqgluhfw hhfw ri uhgxflqj h{sruw vdohv iurp rwkhu frxqwulhv zklfk frpshwh lq wkh vdph
6 Jhuodfk dqg Vphwv ^4 JDUFK iudphzrunv> frlqwhjudwlrq> dqg
surelw prghov1 Yluwxdoo| doo ri wkhvh sdshuv frqfoxgh wkdw frqwdjlrqqr pdwwhu krz lw lv
ghqhgrffxuuhg gxulqj wkh fulvlv xqghu lqyhvwljdwlrq1
Whvwv edvhg rq furvv0pdunhw fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv duh wkh prvw vwudljkwiruzdug1 Wkhvh
whvwv phdvxuh wkh fruuhodwlrq lq uhwxuqv ehwzhhq wzr pdunhwv gxulqj d vwdeoh shulrg dqg wkhq
whvw iru d vljqlfdqw lqfuhdvh lq wklv fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw diwhu d vkrfn1 Li wkh fruuhodwlrq
frh!flhqw lqfuhdvhv vljqlfdqwo|/ wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp ehwzhhq
8 Udqgrp pdujlq fdoov +zklfk gr qrw ghshqg rq d sduwlfxodu uhdol}dwlrq ri wkh vwrfn pdunhwv,/ djjuhjdwh
fkdqjhv lq wkh suhihuhqfh iru ulvn/ dqg fkdqjhv lq wkh lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ duh doo oltxlglw| vkrfnv
wkdw zloo qrw fkdqjh krz vkrfnv duh wudqvplwwhg dfurvv pdunhwv1 D pdujlq fdoo wkdw lv jhqhudwhg ehfdxvh
d edg uhwxuq zdv uhdol}hg lq d sduwlfxodu dvvhw/ krzhyhu/ lv/ e| frqvwuxfwlrq/ dv|pphwulf dqg hqgrjhqrxv1
Wkhuhiruh/ rqo| lq wkh fdvh ri d pdujlq fdoo grhv wkh wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp fkdqjh dv ghvfulehg lq wkh
vhfrqg sduw ri wkh h{dpsoh1
44
wkh wzr pdunhwv lqfuhdvhg diwhu wkh vkrfn dqg frqwdjlrq rffxuuhg1 Wkh pdmrulw| ri wkhvh
sdshuv whvw iru frqwdjlrq gluhfwo| diwhu wkh XV1 vwrfn pdunhw fudvk ri 4 Nduro|l ) Vwxo} ^4 Slqg|fn ) Urwhpehuj ^4 Slqg|fn )
Urwhpehuj ^4 dqg Pdvvrq ^4 wkh jdph lv dozd|v sod|hg zlwk d txduwhu/ exw wkh
sd|r ghshqgv rq wkh rxwfrph lq wkh uvw frxqwu|1 Dv wkh frlq h{dpsoh fohduo| vkrzv/
hyhq wkrxjk wkh xqghuo|lqj wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp uhpdlqv frqvwdqw +dw 43(, lq erwk
vwdwhv/ wkh furvv0pdunhw fruuhodwlrq lq uhwxuqv lqfuhdvhv vljqlfdqwo| diwhu wkh fulvlv1 Dv d
uhvxow/ whvwv iru frqwdjlrq edvhg rq fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv zrxog vxjjhvw wkdw vkliw0frqwdjlrq
rffxuuhg/ hyhq wkrxjk wkhuh zdv qr ixqgdphqwdo fkdqjh lq krz vkrfnv duh sursdjdwhg dfurvv
pdunhwv1 Whvwv iru frqwdjlrq edvhg rq JDUFK prghov duh vxemhfw wr wkh vdph eldv/ vlqfh wkh
43 Wklv jhqhudo uhvxow lv nqrzq dv wkh Qrupdo Fruuhodwlrq Wkhruhp1 Wr wkh ehvw ri rxu nqrzohgjh/ wkh uvw
shuvrq wr kljkoljkw wklv uhvxow zdv Ure Vwdpedxjk lq d glvfxvvlrq ri Nduro|l dqg Vwxo} ^4 prgli|lqj
shulrg ghqlwlrqv> dowhulqj wkh vrxufh ri frqwdjlrq> ydu|lqj wkh lqwhuhvw udwh frqwurov> dqg
xwlol}lqj uhwxuqv ghqrplqdwhg lq orfdo fxuuhqf| lqvwhdg ri grooduv1 Lq hdfk fdvh/ wkh fhqwudo
uhvxow grhv qrw fkdqjh +dowkrxjk wkh h{dfw qxpehu ri fdvhv ri frqwdjlrq lv kljko| ghshq0
ghqw rq wkh vshflfdwlrq hvwlpdwhg1, Wkh| frqfoxgh wkdw zkhq frqwdjlrq lv ghqhg dv d
56
vljqlfdqw lqfuhdvh lq furvv0pdunhw uhodwlrqvklsv dqg fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv duh dgmxvwhg iru
khwhurvnhgdvwlflw|/ wkhuh zdv yluwxdoo| qr frqwdjlrq gxulqj wkh Hdvw Dvldq fulvlv/ Ph{lfdq
shvr froodsvh/ dqg XV vwrfn pdunhw fudvk1
Orpdnlq dqg Sdl} ^4<<<` pdnh wkh vdph vlpsoli|lqj dvvxpswlrqv dv Iruehv dqg Uljrerq
^4<<<` wr dgguhvv wklv sureohp ri khwhurvnhgdvwlflw| lq whvwv iru frqwdjlrq1 Lqvwhdg ri whvwlqj
iru d vljqlfdqw fkdqjh lq furvv0pdunhw fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv/ krzhyhu/ Orpdnlq ) Sdl}
xvh d surelw dqdo|vlv wr frpsxwh wkh olnholkrrg wkdw rqh frxqwu| zloo kdyh d fulvlv jlyhq wkdw
dqrwkhu frxqwu| kdv douhdg| h{shulhqfhg rqh1 Wkh| vkrz wkdw hvwlpdwhv ri wklv suredelo0
lw| zloo eh eldvhg lq wkh suhvhqfh ri khwhurvnhgdvwlflw|/ dqg wkdw lw lv lpsrvvleoh wr lghqwli|
wkh gluhfwlrq ri wklv eldv1 Dowkrxjk wklv sdshu lv vwloo d zrun lq surjuhvv/ suholplqdu| uh0
vxowv vxjjhvw wkdw dgmxvwlqj iru khwhurvnhgdvwlflw| fdq kdyh d vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq ghqlqj
wkh wkuhvkrog xvhg wr lghqwli| fulvlv shulrgv1 Zkhq wkh| xvh wkh dgmxvwphqw sursrvhg lq
Iruehv dqg Uljrerq wr fruuhfw wkh yduldqfh0fryduldqfh pdwulfhv/ wkh qxpehu ri fulvhv dqg
wkh vwuhqjwk ri furvv0frxqwu| olqndjhv duh erwk uhgxfhg vljqlfdqwo|1
Uljrerq ^4<<<` pdnhv d glhuhqw vhw ri vlpsoli|lqj dvvxpswlrqv lq rughu wr lghqwli| klv
prgho gluhfwo|1 Uljrerq*v lghqwli|lqj dvvxpswlrqv qrw rqo| vroyh iru hqgrjhqhlw|/ exw duh
dovr ydolg lq wkh suhvhqfh ri khwhurvnhgdvwlflw| dqg rplwwhg yduldeohv1 D vljqlfdqw dgydq0
wdjh ri lghqwli|lqj wkh prgho gluhfwo| lv wkdw lw pdnhv lw srvvleoh wr gluhfwo| hvwlpdwh wkh vl}h
ri wkh sursdjdwlrq phfkdqlvpv1 Pruh vshflfdoo|/ Uljrerq*v nh| dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw gxulqj
d fulvlv/ wkh yduldqfh ri wkh glvwxuedqfhv lq rqo| rqh pdunhw lqfuhdvh1 Xvlqj wklv dvvxpswlrq/
kh ghyhorsv d whvw zkhuh wkh mrlqw qxoo k|srwkhvlv lv wkdw rqo| rqh ri wkh yduldqfhv ri wkh
vwuxfwxudo vkrfnv lqfuhdvhv dqg wkh wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp lv vwdeoh1 Wkh whvw lv wkhuh0
iruh uhmhfwhg li hlwkhu wkh wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvp fkdqjhv +l1h1 frqwdjlrq rffxuv, ru li wkh
yduldqfhv ri wzr ru pruh glvwxuedqfhv lqfuhdvh1 Wklv lghqwlfdwlrq dvvxpswlrq fdq eh lqwhu0
suhwhg lq dq lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeohv iudphzrun dqg wkh whvw lv lpsohphqwhg dv d Kdxvpdq
vshflfdwlrq whvw1
Uljrerq wkhq xvhv wklv phwkrgrorj| wr whvw li wkh furvv0frxqwu| sursdjdwlrq ri vkrfnv lv
idluo| vwdeoh ehwzhhq 69 frxqwulhv gxulqj wkh 4<<7 Ph{lfdq shvr fulvlv/ wkh 4<<: Hdvw Dvldq
57
fulvlv/ dqg wkh 4<<; Uxvvldq ghydoxdwlrq1 Kh hvwlpdwhv wkh vdph edvlf prgho dv lq Iruehv
dqg Uljrerq ^4<<<` dqg whvwv iru d vljqlfdqw fkdqjh lq wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv ehwzhhq
wkh vwdeoh shulrg ehiruh hdfk fulvlv dqg wkh wxpxowxrxv shulrg gluhfwo| diwhu hdfk fulvlv1 Lq
whvwv iru frqwdjlrq zlwklq rqh prqwk ri hdfk fulvlv/ kh qgv wkdw wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv
lqfuhdvh vljqlfdqwo| lq ohvv wkdq 48 shufhqw ri wkh furvv0frxqwu| sdluv +dqg lq ohvv wkdq :
shufhqw gxulqj wkh Ph{lfdq fulvlv1, Uljrerq shuirupv d qxpehu ri vhqvlwlylw| whvwv dqg qgv
wkdw prgho vshflfdwlrq fdq dhfw wkh uhvxowv1 Lq prvw ri wkh fdvhv zkhq wkh uhvxowv fkdqjh
vljqlfdqwo|/ krzhyhu/ wkhuh lv pruh wkdq rqh fulvlv gxulqj wkh wxpxowxrxv shulrg +zklfk
zrxog lqfuhdvh wkh fkdqfh ri klv whvw ehlqj uhmhfwhg,1 Uljrerq frqfoxghv wkdw wudqvplvvlrq
phfkdqlvpv zhuh idluo| vwdeoh dqg wkdw vkliw0frqwdjlrq rffxuuhg lq ohvv wkdq 43 shufhqw ri
wkh frxqwulhv diwhu uhfhqw qdqfldo fulvhv1
817 Qr Frqwdjlrq/ Rqo| Lqwhughshqghqfh
Wklv vxuyh| ri uhfhqw hpslulfdo zrun whvwlqj iru frqwdjlrq pdnhv vhyhudo fulwlfdo srlqwv1
Iluvw/ whvwv iru frqwdjlrq zklfk gr qrw fruuhfw iru khwhurjhqhlw| duh eldvhg1 Zkhq pdunhw
yrodwlolw| lqfuhdvhv/ zklfk whqgv wr kdsshq gxulqj fulvhv/ wkhvh whvwv zloo ryhuvwdwh wkh pdj0
qlwxgh ri furvv0pdunhw uhodwlrqvklsv1 Dv d uhvxow/ whvwv iru frqwdjlrq zklfk gr qrw dgmxvw iru
khwhurjhqhlw| pd| vxjjhvw wkdw frqwdjlrq rffxuuhg/ hyhq zkhq furvv0pdunhw wudqvplvvlrq
phfkdqlvpv duh vwdeoh dqg vkliw0frqwdjlrq grhv qrw rffxu1
Vhfrqg/ hdfk ri wkh sdshuv zklfk kdv dwwhpswhg wr fruuhfw iru khwhurjhqhlw|/ hqgrjhqhlw|
dqg2ru rplwwhg yduldeohv kdv vkrzq wkdw wkh eldv iurp wkhvh sureohpv lv qrw lqvljqlfdqw dqg
zloo dhfw hvwlpdwhv ri frqwdjlrq gxulqj uhfhqw qdqfldo fulvhv1 Wkhvh sdshuv xvh d ydulhw|
ri glhuhqw dssurdfkhv/ lghqwlfdwlrq dvvxpswlrqv/ dqg prgho vshflfdwlrqv wr dgmxvw iru
rqh +ru pruh, ri wkhvh sureohpv1 Wkh| qg wkdw wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv zhuh idluo| vwdeoh
gxulqj uhfhqw qdqfldo fulvhv/ dqg vlqfh frqwdjlrq lv ghqhg dv d vljqlfdqw lqfuhdvh lq furvv0
pdunhw olqndjhv diwhu d vkrfn/ wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw olwwoh frqwdjlrq rffxuuhg gxulqj uhfhqw
fulvhv1
Wklug/ wkhvh uhvxowv kdyh vwurqj lpsolfdwlrqv iru krz vkrfnv duh wudqvplwwhg dfurvv pdu0
58
nhwv1 Dv h{sodlqhg lq Vhfwlrq BB/ wkhruhwlfdo zrun h{sodlqlqj krz vkrfnv duh sursdjdwhg
fdq eh glylghg lqwr wzr jurxsv= fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw dqg qrq0fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw fkdqqhov1 Fulvlv0
frqwlqjhqw fkdqqhov lpso| wkdw wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv fkdqjh gxulqj d fulvlv/ dqg qrq0
fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw fkdqqhov lpso| wkdw wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv duh vwdeoh gxulqj erwk fulvhv
dqg wudqtxlo shulrgv1 Vlqfh wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh glvfxvvhg lq wklv vhfwlrq qgv wkdw furvv0
pdunhw olqndjhv gr qrw fkdqjh vljqlfdqwo| gxulqj uhfhqw qdqfldo fulvhv/ wklv hylghqfh vxj0
jhvwv wkdw prvw vkrfnv duh wudqvplwwhg wkurxjk qrq0fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw fkdqqhov1 Dv d uhvxow/
wkhuh lv olwwoh vxssruw iru fulvlv0frqwlqjhqw fkdqqhov/ vxfk dv wkrvh edvhg rq pxowlsoh htxlole0
uld/ hqgrjhqrxv oltxlglw|/ ru srolwlfdo hfrqrp|1
Irxuwk dqg qdoo|/ wkhvh hpslulfdo sdshuv qg wkdw/ hyhq wkrxjk furvv0pdunhw olqndjhv
gr qrw lqfuhdvh vljqlfdqwo| diwhu d vkrfn/ wkhvh olqndjhv duh vxusulvlqjo| kljk lq doo vwdwhv ri
wkh zruog1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ vwurqj wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv diwhu d vkrfn duh d frqwlqxdwlrq
ri vwurqj olqndjhv zklfk h{lvw gxulqj vwdeoh shulrgv1 Lq rughu wr glhuhqwldwh wklv vlwxdwlrq
iurp vkliw0frqwdjlrq/ Iruehv dqg Uljrerq ^4<<<` uhihu wr wkh h{lvwhqfh ri vwurqj wudqvplv0
vlrq phfkdqlvpv lq doo vwdwhv ri wkh zruog dv h{fhvv lqwhughshqghqfh1 Wkhuhiruh/ uhfhqw
hpslulfdo zrun zklfk dgmxvwv iru khwhurjhqhlw|/ hqgrjhqhlw|/ dqg2ru rplwwhg yduldeohv qgv
qr frqwdjlrq/ rqo| lqwhughshqghqfh1
9 Ixwxuh Uhvhdufk= H{sodlqlqj Lqwhughshqghqfh
Wkhvh uhvxowv vxjjhvw d qhz gluhfwlrq iru uhvhdufk rq vwrfn pdunhw fr0pryhphqwv1 Irfxvlqj
rq krz lqwhuqdwlrqdo sursdjdwlrq phfkdqlvpv fkdqjh diwhu d vkrfn pd| qrw eh wkh prvw
surgxfwlyh dssurdfk1 Lqvwhdg/ uhvhdufk vkrxog irfxv rq zk| pdunhwv duh vr kljko| lqwhjudwhg
gxulqj shulrgv ri uhodwlyh vwdelolw|/ dv zhoo dv gxulqj shulrgv ri fulvlv1 Fulvlv shulrgv frxog
eh xvhg dv zlqgrzv wr khos lghqwli| wkhvh wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv/ lqvwhdg ri lqwhusuhwhg
dv shulrgv zklfk jhqhudwh qhz w|shv ri wudqvplvvlrq phfkdqlvpv1
Lq rwkhu zrugv/ ixuwkhu hpslulfdo uhvhdufk vkrxog irfxv qrw rq zk| vrph frxqwulhv duh
vr yxoqhudeoh gxulqj shulrgv ri fulvlv/ exw zk| frxqwulhv duh dozd|v vr yxoqhudeoh wr pryh0
59
phqwv lq rwkhu frxqwulhv1 Zk| gr vr pdq| pdunhwv ri vxfk glhuhqw vl}hv/ vwuxfwxuhv/ dqg
jhrjudsklf orfdwlrqv jhqhudoo| vkrz vxfk d kljk ghjuhh ri fr0pryhphqwB Duh wkhvh glyhuvh
pdunhwv olqnhg e| wudgh zlwk wklug pdunhwvB Ru e| rwkhu hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov/ vxfk dv
frpprq fuhglwruv/ wkdw zh kdyh ehhq xqdeoh wr phdvxuhB Ru lv wkhuh dq h{fhvv lqwhugh0
shqghqfh dfurvv pdunhwv lq doo vwdwhv ri wkh zruogB Dqg lq wklv fdvh/ zkdw wkhrulhv frxog
h{sodlq h{fhvv lqwhughshqghqfhB
5: