COMMODITY
Agri Buzz: USDA Projects US Wheat Supplies To Witness Sharp Decline In
2011-12:
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 76 million bushels as
lower expected domestic use and exports more than offset reduced production.
Production is lowered 69 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower spring wheat
output as estimated in the September 30. With tighter domestic supplies and an TODAYS MARKETS
increase in production in Canada, U.S. imports are raised 10 million bushels, 5
million bushels each for Durum and Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat. Domestic use SENSEX
is lowered 84 million bushels with seed use reduced 4 million bushels on lower
planted area and feed and residual use projected 80 million bushels lower on LTP 17003.49
indications from the September 1 stocks.
Chg. +45.10
Despite competitive wheat prices relative to corn for feeders in many areas, wheat
feed and residual use during June-August is indicated 53 million bushels lower
%Chg. +0.27
than the same quarter last year. All wheat food use for 2011/12 is unchanged;
however, food use is lowered 15 million bushels for HRS wheat and raised an NIFTY
offsetting amount for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. U.S. exports for 2011/12 are
projected 50 million bushels lower with HRS reduced 40 million and HRW reduced LTP 5110.20
10 million. Tighter spring wheat supplies in the United States boost export Chg. +10.80
prospects for Canada and larger exportable supplies in Australia and strong
shipments by Russia increase competition in the world market. %Chg. +0.21
PRE-SESSION
13-Oct-11 (10:01) 13-Oct-11 (09:48)
Agri Buzz: USDA Projects US Wheat Agri Buzz: China September Edible Oil
Supplies To Witness Sharp Down 11% To 5.70 Lakh BSE SENSEX
16979.66
13-Oct-11 (09:52) 13-Oct-11 (09:47) N +21.27
Agri Buzz: China Soyabean September Agri Buzz: China September Exports Up O
Imports Down 11% To 4.13 77% To 10200 MTs
R
E
C
BULLION MARKETS - MCX O
R DJIA
GOLD SILVER D 11518.85
S +102.55
FTSE 100
5441.80
+46.10
www.danisecurities.com Page 1
MCX GAINERS NCDEX GAINERS
COMMODITY EXP DATE PRICE %CHG. COMMODITY EXP DATE PRICE %CHG.
POTATO 15-Oct-11 392.30 +0.72 MAIZE 20-Dec-11 1,130.50 +4.00
POTATO 15-Mar-12 644.30 +0.61 MAIZE 18-Nov-11 1,110.00 +3.16
LEAD 30-Dec-11 99.70 +0.35 MAIZE 20-Oct-11 1,046.50 +3.00
SUGARMKOL 20-Dec-11 2,802.00 +0.32 MAIZE 20-Jan-12 1,160.00 +2.47
SUGARMKOL 20-Oct-11 2,769.00 +0.22 CASTORSEED 18-Nov-11 4,080.00 +0.72
MCX LOSERS NCDEX LOSERS
COMMODITY EXP DATE PRICE %CHG. COMMODITY EXP DATE PRICE %CHG.
CPO 30-Nov-11 465.60 -0.17 WHTSMQDELI 18-Nov-11 1,130.00 -0.04
GOLDPETAL 30-Nov-11 2,711.00 -0.29 CHARJDDEL 20-Oct-11 3,082.00 -0.06
NATURALGAS 27-Dec-11 195.70 -0.31 CHLL334GTR 20-Oct-11 8,622.00 -0.12
NATURALGAS 25-Nov-11 187.10 -0.32 RMSEED 20-Jan-12 2,952.00 -0.17
CPO 31-Oct-11 465.60 -0.32 CHARJDDEL 20-Jan-12 3,430.00 -0.17
COMEX PRICES MCX FUTURES
COMMODITY LTP CHG CHG%. COMMODITY CLOSE CHG%. VOLUMES OI
ALUMINIUM 109.00 +0.41 5,076 1,761
COPPER 368.75 +2.30 156,324 23,798
CRUDEOIL 4,206.00 -0.80 186,811 20,435
GOLD 26,864.00 +0.75 43,411 11,405
NICKEL 937.10 +0.68 56,057 7,448
SILVER 54,162.00 +1.68 71,512 13,190
ZINC 95.15 +1.44 22,731 3,597
CURRENCY WATCH INDIAN INDICES
CLOSE CHG CHG% INDICES 13-OCT CHG. %CHG.
USD/INR 48.96 -0.37 -0.75 SENSEX 17,003.49 45.10 +0.27
EUR/USD 1.38 0.02 +1.27 NIFTY 5,110.20 10.80 +0.21
GBP/USD 1.57 0.02 +1.22 BSE 500 6,552.69 20.05 +0.31
USD/JPY 77.71 0.64 +0.83 NIFTY JUNIOR 9,914.60 45.40 +0.46
EUR/INR 67.47 0.34 +0.51
GBP/INR 77.06 0.35 +0.46
JPY/INR 0.63 -0.01 -1.56
www.danisecurities.com Page 2
RECOMMENDATION
MCX GOLD
International
Major Support at USD1450.
Bullish till USD1850.
Domestic
Trading Range 25,900- 27,100
MCX SILVER
International
Major Support at USD33.
Bullish above USD40.
Domestic
Buy at 53,500 stop loss 53,100 target 54,000.
MCX COPPER
International
Major Resisatnce at LME 9600.
Bullish above LME 9000.
Domestic
Sell below 360 stop loss 363 target 355.
www.danisecurities.com Page 3
RECOMMENDATION
MCX CRUDE OIL
International
Major Support for WTI at USD70.
Can consolidate between USD 75- USD 70.
Domestic
Positional Call- Sell between 4,160-4,180 stop loss
4,250 target 4,080.
MCX ZINC
Domestic
Sell on rise bet 94.50-95 stop loss 96 target 93.50-93
MCX NICKEL
International
Major Resistance at LME 25600.
Domestic
Weak below 925.
www.danisecurities.com Page 4
RECOMMENDATION
MCX NATURAL GAS
International
Trading Range between USD 3.50 -USD 4.80. Bullish
above USD 4.80.
Domestic
-
NCDEX GOLD
International
Major Support at USD1450.
Bullish till USD1850.
Domestic
Trading Range 25,900- 27,100
NCDEX SILVER
International
Major Support at USD33.
Bullish above USD40.
Domestic
Buy at 53,500 stop loss 53,100 target 54,000.
www.danisecurities.com Page 5
RECOMMENDATION
NCDEX COPPER
International
Major Resisatnce at LME 9600.
Bullish above LME 9000.
Domestic
Sell below 360 stop loss 363 target 355.
NCDEX CRUDEOIL
International
Major Support for WTI at USD96.
Bullish till USD108.
Domestic
Positional Call- Sell between 4,160-4,180 stop loss
4,250 target 4,080.
NCDEX CHANA
Domestic
Buy above 3,200 stop loss 3,000 target 3,400
www.danisecurities.com Page 6
RECOMMENDATION
NCDEX CHILLI 334 GTR
Domestic
Buy above 8,300 stop loss 8,000 target 8,700.
NCDEX PEPPER
Domestic
Buy above 36,600 stop loss 35,600 target 38,000.
NCDEX WHEAT STD MILL I
Domestic
Sell below 1,120 stop loss 1,130 target 1,110-1,100.
www.danisecurities.com Page 7
RECOMMENDATION
NCDEX SOYABEAN
Domestic
Buy above 2,100 stop loss 2,050 target 2,160-2,200.
NCDEX REFINED SOYA OIL
Domestic
Buy above 600 stop loss 590 target 615.
NCDEX JEERA
Domestic
Buy above 14,950 stop loss 14,650 target 15,300.
www.danisecurities.com Page 8
RECOMMENDATION
NCDEX POTATO
Domestic
Bullish above 360 on a closing basis.
NCDEX GUAR SEEDS
Domestic
Buy on dips bet 4,400 - 4,300 stop loss 4,100 target
4,600-4,650.
NCDEX GUAR GUM
Domestic
-
www.danisecurities.com Page 9
MCX TECHNICALS
COMMODITY CONTRACT S1 S2 CLOSE CHG% R1 R2 PP EST.HIGH EST.LOW
ALUMINIUM 31-Oct-11 108.23 107.47 109.00 +0.41 109.83 110.67 109.07 109.84 108.24
COPPER 30-Nov-11 363.43 358.12 368.75 +2.30 372.53 376.32 367.22 371.02 361.92
CRUDEOIL 19-Oct-11 4,177.00 4,148.00 4,206.00 -0.80 4,239.00 4,272.00 4,210.00 4,250.60 4,188.60
GOLD 05-Dec-11 26,737.33 26,610.67 26,864.00 +0.75 26,999.33 27,134.67 26,872.67 26,945.20 26,683.20
GOLDM 05-Nov-11 26,540.00 26,370.00 26,710.00 +0.72 26,860.00 27,010.00 26,690.00 26,800.00 26,480.00
LEAD 31-Oct-11 98.25 96.60 99.90 +2.51 101.15 102.40 99.50 100.65 97.75
NATURALGAS 25-Oct-11 170.13 167.47 172.80 -2.87 177.43 182.07 174.77 177.78 170.48
NICKEL 31-Oct-11 929.87 922.63 937.10 +0.68 946.67 956.23 939.43 943.36 926.56
SILVER 05-Dec-11 53,496.67 52,831.33 54,162.00 +1.68 54,662.67 55,163.33 53,997.33 54,509.60 53,343.60
ZINC 31-Oct-11 94.03 92.92 95.15 +1.44 96.18 97.22 95.07 95.77 93.62
NCDEX TECHNICALS
COMMODITY CONTRACT S1 S2 CLOSE CHG% R1 R2 PP EST.HIGH EST.LOW
BARLEYJPR 20-Oct-11 1,094.93 1,088.27 1,101.60 +0.20 1,106.53 1,111.47 1,099.87 1,107.68 1,096.08
CASTORSEED 18-Nov-11 4,010.67 3,970.33 4,051.00 -0.27 4,075.67 4,100.33 4,035.33 4,091.80 4,026.80
CHARJDDEL 18-Nov-11 3,186.67 3,139.33 3,234.00 +1.60 3,269.67 3,305.33 3,222.33 3,263.00 3,180.00
CHLL334GTR 20-Oct-11 8,566.00 8,500.00 8,632.00 -1.15 8,734.00 8,836.00 8,668.00 8,760.40 8,592.40
COCUDAKL 20-Dec-11 1,137.67 1,121.33 1,154.00 +2.30 1,163.67 1,173.33 1,147.33 1,159.80 1,133.80
DHANIYA 18-Nov-11 5,375.67 5,288.33 5,463.00 +2.55 5,514.67 5,566.33 5,427.33 5,498.00 5,359.00
GARGUMJDR 18-Nov-11 12,997.67 12,804.33 13,191.00 -1.79 13,491.67 13,792.33 13,298.33 13,569.00 13,075.00
GARSEDJDR 20-Oct-11 4,454.67 4,347.33 4,562.00 -2.98 4,734.67 4,907.33 4,627.33 4,749.20 4,469.20
GURCHMUZR 18-Nov-11 953.00 942.50 963.50 -0.72 975.50 987.50 965.00 979.30 956.80
JEERAUNJHA 18-Nov-11 14,775.67 14,664.33 14,887.00 +0.80 14,982.67 15,078.33 14,871.33 14,944.40 14,737.40
KAPASSRNR 30-Apr-12 742.73 735.47 750.00 +1.96 754.53 759.07 747.27 752.72 740.92
MAIZE 18-Nov-11 1,055.33 1,034.67 1,076.00 +4.01 1,086.33 1,096.67 1,065.67 1,082.20 1,051.20
POTATO 20-Mar-12 585.90 581.40 590.40 -0.20 596.80 603.20 592.30 598.60 587.70
PPRMLGKOC 18-Nov-11 36,906.67 36,678.33 37,135.00 -1.07 37,471.67 37,808.33 37,243.33 37,551.00 36,986.00
RMSEED 18-Nov-11 2,850.67 2,823.33 2,878.00 +1.34 2,903.67 2,929.33 2,876.33 2,893.40 2,840.40
SUGARM200 20-Oct-11 2,743.00 2,738.00 2,748.00 +0.18 2,752.00 2,756.00 2,747.00 2,751.20 2,742.20
SYBEANIDR 18-Nov-11 2,122.33 2,098.17 2,146.50 +2.36 2,160.33 2,174.17 2,136.17 2,154.80 2,116.80
SYOREFIDR 18-Nov-11 593.68 587.52 599.85 +1.78 604.48 609.12 598.32 602.63 591.83
TMCFGRNZM 18-Nov-11 5,161.33 4,978.67 5,344.00 +0.53 5,475.33 5,606.67 5,292.67 5,462.80 5,148.80
WHTSMQDELI 20-Oct-11 1,104.33 1,100.67 1,108.00 +0.31 1,112.33 1,116.67 1,108.67 1,110.60 1,102.60
www.danisecurities.com Page 10
CFTC As on 04-Oct-2011
NON-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL NON-REPORTABLE
NET POSITION WKLY NET CHG. NET POSTION WKLY NET CHG. NET POSTION WKLY NET CHG.
Gold 133156 5355 -164751 1932 31595 -7287
Silver 11900 -3525 -18923 5339 7023 -1814
Copper -3418 -1956 9323 768 -5905 1188
Crude Oil 108164 -29522 -114385 24666 6221 4856
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
INDICATOR DATE ACTUAL FORECAST PREV IMPACT
Trade Balance 13-Oct-11 -$46.0B -$44.8B Medium
Initial Jobless Claims 13-Oct-11 405K Low
Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Sidney Montana 13-Oct-11 Low
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 13-Oct-11 -1137K Low
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 13-Oct-11 -744K Low
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 13-Oct-11 -4679K Low
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 13-Oct-11 -831K Low
Continuing Claims 13-Oct-11 3710K Low
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 13-Oct-11 -50.2 Low
www.danisecurities.com Page 11
Disclaimer
CA- Kaushal Jaini
Contact No: 61397214
kaushal.jaini@danisecurities.com
CFA- Pinky Chandnani
Contact No: 61397224
pinky.chandnani@danisecurities.com
Devashish Srivastava
Contact No: 61397224
devashish.shrivastav@danisecurities.com
This report is distributed for information purpose only. The information in this report does not constitute an
offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities mentioned in the report. The readers may
note that neither Dani Commodities Pvt. Ltd (DCPL) nor its analysts or employees take any responsibility,
financial or otherwise, due to any transaction undertaken or any action based on the information contained
herein. DCPL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required
from time to time.
www.danisecurities.com Page 12