GROUNDHOG DAY
Brian Beckemeyer
Basics
Punxsutawney Phil is “the official weather
predicting groundhog!”
On February 2nd, Phil is brought to Gobbler’s Knob
which is his “burrow.” However, he doesn’t live there
all year.
During the rest of the year, he lives in the town
library with his “wife”, Phyllis.
The Legend
If Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks
of winter.
If Phil doesn’t see
his shadow, there
will be an early
spring.
Where Does Groundhog Day Come
From?
Europe.
The groundhog tradition stems from similar beliefs associated
with Candlemas Day and the days of early Christians in
Europe. For centuries the custom was to have the clergy bless
candles and distribute them to the people. Even then, it marked
a milestone in the winter; and the weather that day was
important.
The Germans
Pennsylvania's earliest settlers were Germans and they
found an abundance of groundhogs in many parts of the
state. They determined that the groundhog, resembling the
European hedgehog, was a most intelligent and sensible
animal and therefore decided that if the sun did appear on
February 2nd, the groundhog would see its shadow and
hurry back into its underground home for another six weeks
of winter.
Their rhyme was:
For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day,
So far will the snow swirl until May.
The Beginning
Phil’s first prediction was in 1887. He saw his
shadow.
The first time he didn’t see his shadow was 1890.
Since his first prediction in 1887 he has only
predicted an early spring 14 times.
The Farmers
Another rhyme used by American farmers in the 19th
century was:
Groundhog Day - Half your hay.
This meant that since February 2nd is in the heart of
winter, they should still have half of their hay to
have ample supply for the cows to eat until spring
and fresh grass arrive.
What Does That Mean?
If it is sunny on February 2, Phil will see his shadow
If it is cloudy, Phil won’t see his shadow
Is Phil Accurate?
Year Phil’s Prediction Verification
2001 cold cold
2002 cold warm
2003 cold warm
2004 cold cold
2005 cold cold
2006 cold cold
2007 warm cold
2008 cold cold
2009 cold warm
2010 cold warm
World War II
In 1942 “War clouds blacked out parts of the
shadow ~ The Spirit”
In 1943 Phil made no appearance due to the war
Phil has made a prediction every year since 1887
except for these two years.
More Recent News
Groundhog Day’s popularity grew rapidly after the
release of the movie Groundhog Day starring Bill
Murray in 1993.
Thousands of people now make the trek to
Gobbler’s Knob to see Phil’s prediction
The Inner Circle
The Inner Circle consists of 15 members
They are the guys wearing top hats on Groundhog
Day
The president of the Inner Circle relays the message
from Phil because only he speaks “Groundhogese.”
The current president is Bill Deeley
How Old Is Phil?
According to the Inner Circle, Phil is given a sip of
the Elixer of Life ever year. It is fabled to add
seven years to his life span.
Seems very unlikely that a groundhog would live for
123 years
How Many Phils Have There Been?
The average groundhog lives to be about 8 years
old.
123/8 is 15.375
Rounding to the nearest groundhog, there have
been 16 Punxsutawney Phils.
Conclusions
http://virga.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjet_archloop.html
References
All images courtesy of Google image search
Historical references from groundhog.org
Weather almanac found on wunderground.com