PRIMARY BRACKETOLOGY
Making sense of momentum
in the nomination process
Dante J. Scala
University of New Hampshire
What happens once we start voting?
• Front-loaded primary • OR... Front-loaded
schedule means IA, NH primary schedule makes
matter less IA, NH matter more
• Only well-funded, • after year-long process,
well-known candidates media attention huge in
can compete in national, first states
33-day primary • candidates cannot afford
• Little-known candidates early stumble in 100-yd
have no time to dash
capitalize on upset
What does history tell us?
• Since 1980, nine multicandidate primaries
• GOP: 1980, 1988, 1996, 2000
• Dems: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2004
• of these nine, only one (Bill Clinton, 1992)
won the nomination without winning IA or NH
• Why? In large part, because winning early
contest is signal of electability to mass
electorate just starting to pay attention
Third wheels
• Some candidates do survive winnowing in IA
and NH without winning these states
• however, they become “third wheels” in two-
candidate competition
• Jesse Jackson, 1988; Jerry Brown, 1992;
Lamar Alexander, 1996; Steve Forbes, 2000;
Wesley Clark, 2004
• Third wheels never win the nomination
Will 2008 be any different?
• Yes, process is more frontloaded than ever
• On other hand, media attention greatest ever
• If latter at least cancels out the former, then IA
and NH matter at least as much as ever
• And again, because of compressed schedule,
scarce time to recover from an early loss
• so maybe IA and NH matter more than ever
WIN or GET OUT!
• Winnowing process of early contests like a
tournament
• NCAA college basketball, or Little League
• Winning within your bracket means living to
fight another day
• Early losers may be headed home very soon
• “Electability” = Winners win, losers lose
Let’s go to the GOP brackets!
• Five candidates plausibly can win the
nomination
• Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee,
Thompson (sorry, Paulines!)
• How do we make sense of this five-man race?
• Divide into two brackets
• Moderates (Rudy v. McCain)
• Conservatives (Mitt v. Fred v. Huckabee)
The conservative bracket
THE conservative
candidate
If Mitt wins Iowa, Fred second...
THE conservative
candidate
If Mitt wins Iowa, Huckabee second...
THE conservative
candidate
If Fred wins Iowa...
THE conservative
candidate
If Huckabee wins Iowa...
THE conservative
candidate
The moderate bracket
THE moderate
candidate
Does IA matter for these guys?
• Yes, if they can surprise and exceed
expectations
• Exceeding expectations = second place in IA
• If either wins first?
• Immediate frontrunner status
Not everyone leaves New Hampshire...
THE moderate
candidate
If Mitt wins New Hampshire...
THE moderate
candidate
Tom Rath’s question:
However, if Romney wins
IA and NH, his momentum
becomes tough to stop.
Where does Rudy win?
If Rudy wins New Hampshire...
• Rudy becomes the
moderate candidate
• Rudy stops Mitt’s
momentum
• Rudy sends McCain
home
• Best of all worlds:
Rudy vs. trio of weak
conservatives
• On to S. Carolina!
Dems: Queen (or King) of the mountain
If Hillary wins IA, Obama second
Implications
• Do New Hampshire Democrats see the race as
a two-person contest?
• Does Obama become the anti-Hillary?
• Hillary’s nightmare: Mondale-Hart scenario
from 1984
What about the second tier?
• Can one of the others
get into the picture?
• Only by finishing 3rd in
Iowa
• 2nd in N.H.
Conclusions: Are IA, NH everything?
• Depends (but yes, mostly)
• HRC goes 2-for-2, it’s over
• Obama goes 2-for-2, it’s over
• If Edwards wins IA, then we go to Feb. 5
(Super-Duper Tuesday)
• If HRC and Obama split IA and NH, we go to
Feb. 5 (at least)
And the Republicans?
• at this stage, only Romney seems to have a
chance to win both IA and NH
• AND Romney’s strategy the only one that
depends on winning both IA and NH!
• Huckabee: IA first, then SC
• Thompson: IA + SC
• Rudy, McCain: NH stepping stone to SC
Once momentum starts...
• ... it’s difficult to stop
• just ask former
frontrunner Howard
Dean
• once real people start
voting, events take on a
logic of their own
• WIN or GET OUT!