Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.)
Historic Year: (production/marketing) Yield (bu. per acre) Long-term Historical Yield Probability: Supplies: Planted acres (million) Harvested acres (million) Production (mil. bu.) Beginning carryover (mil. bu.) Total Supply (incl. imports) Total Usage: (mil. bu.) Feed & residual Ethanol Food, ind. & seed Exports Total Usage Ethanol Usage: 2/ Ethanol usage (bu. corn) DDGS production (mil. bu. corn equiv.) 3/ Ethanol usage (bu. per acre) DDGS production (bu. per acre equiv.) Ethanol usage (% corn production) DDGS production (corn equiv.% of crop) Mil. bu. increase in ethanol vs. prev. year Ending Carryover: (mil. bu.) Carryover as percent of supply Carryover, weeks of total use Prices: U.S. weighted avg. farm price Iowa weighted avg. farm price Counter-cyclical pmt. Harvest price (central Iowa) Dec. futures price (harvest avg.) Other: Feed use % chg. low-yield years vs. 2007-08 Mil. bu. domestic corn feeding replaced by increased DDGS 2/ Mil. bu. corn exports replaced by increased DDGS Mil. bu. change in corn feeding vs. prev. year % change in corn feeding vs. prev. year: Net change in domestic corn feeding (mil. bu.) vs. prev. yr., incl. DDGS
1/
Prelim.
Proj.
Projected 2009-2010
Med. Low 154.5 159.5 18% 65%
4/
Updated: 8/12/2009 Projected 2010-2011
Med. Low 150.0 158.0 18% 65%
4/
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 160.4 147.9 149.1 151.1 153.9
High 162.0 17%
High 162.0 17%
80.9 73.6 11,807 958 12,776
81.8 75.1 11,114 2,114 13,237
78.3 70.6 10,535 1,967 12,514
93.6 86.5 13,073 1,304 14,398
86.0 78.6 12,101 1,624 13,740
87.0 79.4 12,265 1,720 14,000
87.0 80.0 12,761 1,720 14,495
87.0 80.1 12,976 1,720 14,705
88.0 80.4 12,060 1,470 13,545
88.0 81.0 12,798 1,470 14,280
88.0 81.0 13,122 1,470 14,605
6,158 1,323 1,363 1,818 10,662
6,155 1,603 1,378 2,134 11,270
5,598 2,117 1,371 2,125 11,210
5,974 3,026 1,338 2,436 12,773
5,250 3,650 1,270 1,850 12,020
5,100 4,225 1,275 2,100 12,700
5,325 4,275 1,275 2,150 13,025
5,375 4,325 1,280 2,175 13,155
5,050 4,450 1,270 1,875 12,645
5,200 4,650 1,280 1,925 13,055
5,250 4,700 1,285 1,950 13,185
1,323 282 18 4 11.2% 2.4% 155 2,114 16.5% 10.3
1,603 347 21 5 14.4% 3.1% 280 1,967 14.9% 9.1
2,117 466 30 7 20.1% 4.4% 514 1,304 10.4% 6.0
3,026 675 35 8 23.1% 5.2% 909 1,624 11.3% 6.6
3,650 826 46 11 30.2% 6.8% 624 1,720 12.5% 7.4
4,225 969 53 12 34.4% 7.9% 575 1,300 9.3% 5.3
4,275 980 53 12 33.5% 7.7% 625 1,470 10.1% 5.9
4,325 991 54 12 33.3% 7.6% 675 1,550 10.5% 6.1
4,450 1,019 55 13 36.9% 8.5% 175 900 6.6% 3.7
4,650 1,065 57 13 36.3% 8.3% 375 1,225 8.6% 4.9
4,700 1,077 58 13 35.8% 8.2% 425 1,420 9.7% 5.6
$2.06 $1.96 $0.30 $1.60 $1.98
$2.00 $1.95 $0.35 $1.40 $2.00
$3.04 $2.99 $0.00 $2.80 $3.15
$4.20 $4.15 $0.00 $3.30 $3.80
$4.00 $3.95 $0.00 $3.50 $3.85
$4.15 $4.10 $0.00 $3.75 $4.35
$3.50 $3.45 $0.00 $2.75 $3.25
$3.25 $3.20 $0.00 $2.55 $3.10
$4.40 $4.35 $0.00 $4.10 $4.80
$3.75 $3.70 $0.00 $3.30 $3.90
$3.55 $3.50 $0.00 $3.10 $3.70
-14.6% 28 8 363 6.3% 391 52 13 -3 0.0% 49 100 18 -557 -9.0% -457 167 43 376 6.7% 543 107 43 -724 -12.1% -617 112 31 -150 -2.9% -38 122 33 75 1.4% 197 131 34 125 2.4% 256
-15.5% 23 17 -275 -5.2% -252 60 25 -125 -2.3% -65 69 27 -75 -1.4% -6
By Dr. Robert Wisner, Ag Marketing Resource Center, Iowa State University, 1-515-294-4275, rwwisner@iastate.edu
Notes:
Marketing year - starts at Sept. 1 of the production year and ends August 31 of the following year. For example, the 2007 crop is marketed from Sept. 1, 2007 to August 31, 2008. DDGS substitution for corn feeding is based on 17 lbs. of DDGS per bushel of corn. Assumed total DDGS consumption is as follows: 42.5% fed to dairy, 32.5% fed to beef, 5% fed to hogs, 5% fed to poultry and 15% exported in 2007-08 with gradually increasing future exports and a slightly decreasing percentage fed domestically. Assumed percentage of one pound of corn replaced by each pound of DDGS in rations = 45% for dairy, 100% for beef, 55% for poultry and 85% for hogs. 3/ Includes corn equivalent of DDGS exports
2/ 4/ 1/
Medium yield 3.4 bushels/acre below 1990-2007 trend yield. 1995-2007 yield trend is modestly higher, with two low years and one very high year tilting the trend line upward (See alternative yield trend chart). Actual yield has been below the 1995-07 trend all but one year (2004) since 2002. Actual yield has been below the 1990-2007 trend all except two years since 2004.
Key Balance Sheet Assumptions:
1. No changes in Conservation Reserve Program. 2. Crude oil (petroleum) price stays in $60-$75/barrel range for the rest of 2008-09, then gradually increases in the next two years. 3. U.S. Ethanol mandates, blending credit, and import tariff are unchanged & enforced, & allowable blend is raised to E-15, effective January 2010. 4. U.S. & World economies have gradual slowing of growth through 2010. 5. U.S. dollar gradually weakens to 2012. 6. U.S. biodiesel mandate is implemented for 2010 but not 2009 & excess RINs keep biodiesel use below mandate.
. . . and justice for all
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964. Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Jack M. Payne, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.
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Corn Production, Usage and Ending Carryover
14,000
12,000
10,000
Bushels (mil.)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Projected 2009-2010 Projected 2010-2011
Production
Total Usage
Ending Carryover
2
Total Corn Supply (beginning carryover and production)
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Bushels (mil.) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
05 06 07 08 09 456780 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 w Lo M . ed gh Hi w Lo M . ed gh Hi
Historic
Proj. Production
Projected 2009-2010
Projected 2010-2011
Beginning Carryover
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Corn Usage (feed, ethanol, exports and other)
14,000
12,000
10,000
Bushels (mil.)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Historic Feed & residual Proj. Ethanol Low Med. High Low Med. High
Projected 2009-2010 Food, ind. & seed
Projected 2010-2011 Exports
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Yield, Bushels per Acre Used for Ethanol and Returned as Dried Distillers Grains
180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 Bu./acre 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Historic Yield Proj. Low Med. High Low Med. High
Projected 2009-2010
Projected 2010-2011
Bu/ac. for fuel ethanol
DDGS production (bu. per acre equiv.)
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Ending Carryover and the U.S. Weighted Average Farm Price
2,500 $5.00 $4.50 2,000 $4.00 $3.50 1,500 Bushels (mil.) $3.00 $2.50 1,000 $2.00 $1.50 500 $1.00 $0.50 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Historic Ending Carryover Proj. Low Med. High Low Med. High $0.00 Price
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Projected 2009-2010 U.S. weighted avg. farm price
Projected 2010-2011
Ending Carryover, Weighted Average Iowa Farm Price, and Iowa Harvest Price
2,500 $5.00 $4.50 2,000 $4.00 $3.50 1,500 Bushels (mil.) $3.00 $2.50 1,000 $2.00 $1.50 500 $1.00 $0.50 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Historic Ending Carryover Proj. Low Med. High Low Med. High $0.00 Price
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Projected 2009-2010
Projected 2010-2011
Iowa weighted avg. farm price
Harvest price (central Iowa)
U.S. Corn Yield & Alternative Long-Term Trends
180 160 140 120 Bu./Acre 100 80 60 40 20 0
19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10
Historical yield Trend, 1960-2007 Trend, 1970-2007 Trend, 1980-2007 Trend, 1990-2007 Trend, 1995-2007
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