Chapter 13

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					Chapter 13 Workbook

Description: Contains the Chapter 13 textbook figure and supporting sheets.

Contents
     Overview
     Textbook Figure and Table Sheets
           Figure 13.1
           Figure 13.2
           Figure 13.3A
           Figure 13.3B
           Figure 13.3C
           Figure 13.6
           Figure 13.7
           Figure 13.9
           Figure 13.10
           Figure 13.11
           Figure 13.12
     Supporting Sheets
           Data
           DCII
           MR
           DurbinWatson
           X1
           CPD Calcuations
Sales Price Promotion
 4141    59       200
 3842    59       200
 3056    59       200
 3519    59       200
 4226    59       400
 4630    59       400
 3507    59       400
 3754    59       400
 5000    59       600
 5120    59       600
 4011    59       600
 5015    59       600
 1916    79       200
  675    79       200
 3636    79       200
 3224    79       200
 2295    79       400
 2730    79       400
 2618    79       400
 4421    79       400
 4113    79       600
 3746    79       600
 3532    79       600
 3825    79       600
 1096    99       200
  761    99       200
 2088    99       200
  820    99       200
 2114    99       400
 1882    99       400
 2159    99       400
 1602    99       400
 3354    99       600
 2927    99       600
OmniPower Sales Analysis

       Regression Statistics
Multiple R                0.870475
R Square                  0.757726
Adjusted R Square         0.742095
Standard Error           638.06529
Observations                    34

ANOVA
                           df           SS             MS               F     Significance F
Regression                       2   39472730.77   19736365.387    48.47713433 2.86258E-10
Residual                        31   12620946.67     407127.312
Total                           33   52093677.44

                     Coefficients Standard Error     t Stat         P-value    Lower 95%
Intercept              5837.5208         628.150         9.29319   1.79101E-10  4556.39921
Price                   -53.21734        6.85222        -7.76644   9.20016E-09   -67.19254
Promotion                 3.61306        0.68522         5.27283   9.82196E-06     2.21554
gnificance F




               Upper 95%
               7118.64230
                -39.24213
                  5.01058
    Price Promotion
1        59    200
1        59    200
1        59    200
1        59    200
1        59    400
1        59    400
1        59    400
1        59    400
1        59    600
1        59    600
1        59    600
1        59    600
1        79    200
1        79    200
1        79    200
1        79    200
1        79    400
1        79    400
1        79    400
1        79    400
1        79    600
1        79    600
1        79    600
1        79    600
1        99    200
1        99    200
1        99    200
1        99    200
1        99    400
1        99    400
1        99    400
1        99    400
1        99    600
1        99    600
Confidence and Prediction Estimate Intervals

                     Data
Confidence Level                          95%
                                             1
Price given value                           79
Promotion given value                      400

X'X                                        34       2646     13200
                                         2646     214674   1018800
                                        13200    1018800   6000000

Inverse of X'X                        0.969163 -0.00941    -0.00053
                                      -0.00941 0.000115    1.12E-06
                                      -0.00053 1.12E-06    1.15E-06

X'G times Inverse of X'X              0.012054 0.000149    1.49E-05

[X'G times Inverse of X'X] times XG   0.029762
t Statistic                           2.039513
Predicted Y (YHat)                    3078.574

        For Average Predicted Y (YHat)
Interval Half Width                 224.5029
Confidence Interval Lower Limit     2854.071
Confidence Interval Upper Limit     3303.077

          For Individual Response Y
Interval Half Width                 1320.566
Prediction Interval Lower Limit     1758.008
Prediction Interval Upper Limit      4399.14
                                      Residuals versus Predicted Y
            1500




            1000




             500




               0
Residuals




             -500




            -1000




            -1500




            -2000
                    0   1000   2000               3000               4000   5000   6000
                                               Predicted Y
                                  Price Residual Plot
            1500




            1000




             500




               0
Residuals




             -500




            -1000




            -1500




            -2000
                    0   20   40               60        80   100   120
                                             Price
OmniPower Sales Analysis

         Regression Statistics
Multiple R               0.870474549
R Square                 0.757725941
Adjusted R Square        0.742095357
Standard Error           638.0652881
Observations                      34

ANOVA
                            df             SS             MS              F      Significance F
Regression                         2    39472730.77    19736365.39   48.47713433   2.86258E-10
Residual                          31    12620946.67    407127.3119
Total                             33    52093677.44

                       Coefficients  Standard Error    t Stat          P-value     Lower 95%
Intercept                5837.520759    628.150225   9.29319218      1.79101E-10    4556.399214
Price                   -53.21733631   6.852220559 -7.766436566      9.20016E-09   -67.19254007
Promotion                3.613058036   0.685222056   5.27282799      9.82196E-06    2.215537659




RESIDUAL OUTPUT

   Observation        Predicted Sales    Residuals
                  1      3420.309524     720.6904762
                  2      3420.309524     421.6904762
                  3      3420.309524    -364.3095238
                  4      3420.309524     98.69047619
                  5      4142.921131     83.07886905
                  6      4142.921131      487.078869
                  7      4142.921131     -635.921131
                  8      4142.921131     -388.921131
                  9      4865.532738     134.4672619
                 10      4865.532738     254.4672619
                 11      4865.532738    -854.5327381
                 12      4865.532738     149.4672619
                 13      2355.962798    -439.9627976
                 14      2355.962798    -1680.962798
                 15      2355.962798     1280.037202
                 16      2355.962798     868.0372024
                 17      3078.574405    -783.5744048
                 18      3078.574405    -348.5744048
                 19      3078.574405    -460.5744048
                 20      3078.574405     1342.425595
                 21      3801.186012     311.8139881
                 22      3801.186012     -55.1860119
                 23      3801.186012    -269.1860119
                 24      3801.186012      23.8139881
                 25      1291.616071    -195.6160714
                 26      1291.616071    -530.6160714
27   1291.616071    796.3839286
28   1291.616071   -471.6160714
29   2014.227679    99.77232143
30   2014.227679   -132.2276786
31   2014.227679    144.7723214
32   2014.227679   -412.2276786
33   2736.839286    617.1607143
34   2736.839286    190.1607143
 Upper 95%
 7118.642304
-39.24213255
 5.010578412
Durbin-Watson Calculations

Sum of Squared Difference of Residuals   28805446.82
Sum of Squared Residuals                 12620946.67

Durbin-Watson Statistic                  2.282352313
OmniPower Sales Analysis
Price and all other X
        Regression Statistics
Multiple R            0.096774194
R Square              0.009365245
Adjusted R Square -0.021592092
Standard Error        16.46109784
Observations                   34
VIF                   1.009453782
                                    Promotion Residual Plot
            1500




            1000




             500




               0
Residuals




             -500




            -1000




            -1500




            -2000
                    0   100   200         300               400   500   600   700
                                                Promotion
Sales & Promotional Expenses Analysis

      Regression Statistics
Multiple R               0.535095
R Square                 0.286327
Adjusted R Square        0.264024
Standard Error      1077.872084
Observations                   34

ANOVA
                         df            SS            MS          F     Significance F
Regression                     1    14915814.102 14915814.102 12.83845     0.0011115
Residual                      32    37177863.339 1161808.229
Total                         33    52093677.441

                    Coefficients Standard Error      t Stat   P-value    Lower 95%
Intercept            1496.01613      483.978853    3.09107747 0.004111    510.1843006
Promotion                4.12806       1.152100    3.58307795 0.001111      1.7813154
Upper 95%
2481.847958
   6.474814
Sales & Price Analysis

      Regression Statistics
Multiple R               0.735146
R Square                 0.540440
Adjusted R Square        0.526078
Standard Error        864.945650
Observations                   34

ANOVA
                         df           SS              MS              F      Significance F
Regression                     1    28153486.15    28153486.15   37.63176099    7.35855E-07
Residual                      32    23940191.29      748130.98
Total                         33    52093677.44

                     Coefficients Standard Error     t Stat       P-value      Lower 95%
Intercept             7512.34798     734.6188701   10.22618434   1.30793E-11     6015.97958
Price                  -56.71384       9.2451043   -6.13447316   7.35855E-07      -75.54549
Upper 95%
9008.716388
 -37.882199
OmniPower Sales Analysis
Coefficients of Partial Determination

           Intermediate Calculations
SSR(X1,X2) 39472730.77
SST        52093677.44
SSR(X2)     14915814.1 SSR(X1 | X2) 24556916.67
SSR(X1)    28153486.15 SSR(X2 | X1) 11319244.62

       Coefficients
r2 Y1.2      0.660525228
r2 Y2.1      0.472813458
Assessed Value Analysis

      Regression Statistics
Multiple R                0.90059
R Square                  0.81106
Adjusted R Square         0.77957
Standard Error            2.26260
Observations                   15

ANOVA
                          df          SS           MS             F       Significance F
Regression                      2     263.70391   131.85196      25.75565    4.54968E-05
Residual                       12      61.43209     5.11934
Total                          14       325.136

                    Coefficients Standard Error    t Stat       P-value      Lower 95%
Intercept              50.09049        4.351658   11.510668    7.67943E-08      40.60904
Size                   16.18583        2.574442     6.287124   4.02437E-05      10.57661
Fireplace                3.85298       1.241223     3.104183       0.00912       1.14859
Upper 95%
  59.57194
  21.79506
   6.55737
Assessed Value Analysis

      Regression Statistics
Multiple R                0.91791
R Square                  0.84255
Adjusted R Square         0.79961
Standard Error            2.15727
Observations                   15

ANOVA
                          df          SS          MS          F       Significance F
Regression                      3     273.94410 91.31470     19.62150         0.00010
Residual                       11      51.19190 4.65381
Total                          14       325.136

                    Coefficients Standard Error  t Stat     P-value      Lower 95%    Upper 95%
Intercept              62.95218         9.61218 6.54921    4.13993E-05       41.79591   84.10845
Size                     8.36242        5.81730 1.43751        0.17841       -4.44137   21.16621
Fireplace             -11.84036        10.64550 -1.11224       0.28975      -35.27097   11.59024
Size * Fireplace         9.51800        6.41647 1.48337        0.16605       -4.60456   23.64056
Heating Oil Consumption Analysis

      Regression Statistics
Multiple R                0.99421
R Square                  0.98845
Adjusted R Square         0.98529
Standard Error          15.74894
Observations                   15

ANOVA
                         df             SS            MS             F       Significance F
Regression                     3    233406.90935   77802.30312     313.68217    6.21548E-11
Residual                      11      2728.31998     248.02909
Total                         14    236135.22933

                    Coefficients Standard Error      t Stat        P-value      Lower 95%
Intercept             592.54012       14.33698        41.32948    2.02317E-13     560.98461
Temperature             -5.52510        0.20443      -27.02670    2.07188E-11       -5.97505
Insulation             -21.37613        1.44802      -14.76232    1.34816E-08      -24.56320
Ranch-style            -38.97267        8.35844        -4.66267       0.00069      -57.36947
Upper 95%
  624.09562
   -5.07515
  -18.18906
  -20.57586
Heating Oil Consumption Analysis

           Regression Statistics
Multiple R                          0.99655
R Square                            0.99312
Adjusted R Square                   0.98796
Standard Error                     14.25065
Observations                             15

ANOVA
                                   df             SS            MS             F       Significance F
Regression                               6    234510.58185   39085.09697     192.46069    3.32423E-08
Residual                                 8      1624.64749     203.08094
Total                                   14    236135.22933

                             Coefficients Standard Error       t Stat        P-value      Lower 95%
Intercept                      642.88670       26.70590         24.07283    9.45284E-09      581.30273
Temperature                      -6.92627        0.75311         -9.19687   1.58014E-05       -8.66295
Insulation                      -27.88251        3.58011         -7.78818   5.29456E-05      -36.13826
Style                           -84.60882      29.99556          -2.82071       0.02247     -153.77875
Temperature * Insulation          0.17021        0.08863          1.92039       0.09106       -0.03418
Temperature * Ranch-style         0.65957        0.46168          1.42862       0.19097       -0.40507
Insulation * Ranch-style          4.98698        3.51368          1.41930       0.19358       -3.11559
Upper 95%
  704.47066
   -5.18959
  -19.62677
  -15.43889
    0.37460
    1.72420
   13.08955

				
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posted:10/21/2011
language:English
pages:26
Abhimanyu Sukhwal Abhimanyu Sukhwal Associate Consultant
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