The Demand for Bachelor’s
Degrees in Florida
1. Bachelor’s degrees and Florida’s working population
2. Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees-
3. Elements of Demand
− Florida’s labor market
− Students in the pipeline
4. Conclusions
Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner
Accountability, Research and Measurement
Florida Department of Education
Educational Attainment of Selected Labor Force-Aged
Populations (Ages 25-64)
< High School
13.1%
29.2% 13.0%
High School Graduate 26.7
Some College/Associate
29.5%
Bachelors Degrees or 30.2%
28.3% more
30.1%
United States Florida
13.8%
33.4%
25.6%
Ten Most Productive
27.2% States
Source: 2006 American Community
Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census
Bachelor’s Degree Attainment and Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Per Capita Population 25-64 with
Bachelors degree or
higher
United States $37,545 29.2%
Florida $33,718 26.7%
Delaware $59,288 29.1%
Connecticut $50,332 36.6%
Massachusetts $46,721 40.8%
New York $46,617 33.8%
New Jersey $44,885 36.8%
Alaska $43,748 27.5%
Colorado $41,798 35.9%
Virginia $41,702 35.1%
California $41,663 30.1%
Minnesota $41,295 33.2%
Sources: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the
Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis (2006 GDP by State)
Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees
in Florida
50000
SUS
45000
In-Migration
40000 based on
2006 only
35000
30000
25000
20000
ICUF
15000
10000
5000 Private
0 CC
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Source: FETPIP, IPEDS, NCHEMS
National Data: Labor Force Information by Credential Earned
Unemployment Rate Median Earnings
(Percent) (Dollars)
1.4 Doctoral degree
$74,932
1.1 Professional degree
$76,648
1.7 Master’s degree
$58,708
2.3 $50,024
Bachelor’s degree
3.0 Associate degree
$37,492
3.9 Some college, no
$35,048
degree
4.3 High-school, graduate
$30,940
6.8 Some high-school, no
$21,788
diploma
Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings
for full-time wage and salary workers
Sources: Unemployment rate, 2006 annual average: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2006 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by
52 weeks), Bureau of the Census.
Occupational Distribution sorted by Minimum Educational
Requirements in 2016
10,072,029 Jobs projected by 2016 in Florida
High School or Less
Vocational Certificate
College Credit/Associates
Bachelors
Bachelors Plus
0 00 00
0
00
0 00 00 00 00 00
0 00 00 00 00
0
00
0
00
0
00
0
00
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation
100 Fastest Growing Occupations to 2016 by Minimum
Educational Requirements
High School or Less 10
Vocational Certificate 39
College Credit/Associates 27
Bachelors 15
Bachelors Plus 9
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000
Includes occupations with at least 4000 jobs in 2008;
Occupations growing at 2% per year or greater.
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation
Top Florida Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree in
2016 – Ranked by Several Factors
Employment Occupational Annual
Increase (2008- % 2008 Hourly
Occupational Title 2008 2016 2016) Change Average Wage
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 13,989 17,747 3,758 3.36 40.24
Physician Assistants 4,468 5,687 1,219 3.41 40.53
Business Teachers, Postsecondary 3,953 4,915 962 3.04 48.26
Civil Engineers 15,326 18,767 3,441 2.81 37.91
Management Analysts 54,142 65,028 10,886 2.51 37.87
Physical Therapists 12,204 15,097 2,893 2.96 36.02
Environmental Engineers 2,862 3,648 786 3.43 37.09
Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary 1,827 2,265 438 3.00 43.02
Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary 855 1,081 226 3.30 51.03
Industrial Engineers 9,215 11,429 2,214 3.00 33.19
Special Education Teachers, Preschool - Elementary 10,946 13,448 2,502 2.86 32.72
Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary 1,797 2,203 406 2.82 39.55
Occupational Therapists 5,360 6,485 1,125 2.62 34.73
Engineering Managers 4,642 5,357 715 1.93 54.98
Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary 6,866 7,789 923 1.68 51.74
Human Resources Managers, All Other 1,892 2,249 357 2.36 43.82
Hydrologists 614 811 197 4.01 36.32
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 75,241 88,774 13,533 2.25 31.31
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education 11,418 13,747 2,329 2.55 31.07
Education Administrators, Postsecondary 2,976 3,515 539 2.26 40.61
Forestry & Conservation Teachers, Postsecondary 94 120 26 3.46 48.58
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation - Data
Higher Proportions of Minority Students are Moving up the
Pipeline
High School Student Enrollment 1995 - 2005 by Race/
Enthnicity
100%
Black
90%
Hispanic
Other
80%
ALL MINORITY
White
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Florida Education Data Warehouse
Public School Demographic Changes are Reflected in
Community College First Time Enrollees…
First Time Enrollment in Community College: Percent by
Race/Ethnicity
100%
Black
90% Hispanic
Other
80% ALL MINORITY
White
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Demographic Changes are Not as Reflected in State
University First Time Enrollees…
First Time Enrollment in State University: Percent by Race/Ethnicity
100%
Black
90% Hispanic
Other
80% ALL MINORITY
White
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Actual and Projected High School Graduates In Florida
1982-2020
Standard Diplomas
200000
160000
Actual
120000
Projected
80000
40000
0
83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
Source: Florida Department of Education; Evaluation and Reporting
Continuing Education Immediately After High School
Graduation 2002 -2007
80000
Total
Continuing
70000 Education
60000
50000
CC
40000
30000 SUS
20000
10000 Out-of-State
ICUF
0
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
In the year following graduation with a Standard high
School Diploma
Source: FETPIP
Florida Postsecondary Enrollments After High School
Graduation Delayed Starters 2002 -2007
390000
340000 Total
Enrolled
290000
240000
CC
190000
140000
SUS
90000
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Students between 25 and 65 years of age.
Source: Education Data Warehouse
Florida Community College Associate of Arts Graduates
Entry into the Upper Division in State Institutions*
35000
Total Graduates
30000
Total Continuing to the
25000
Upper Division
20000
SUS
15000
10000
5000
ICUF
0
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2006-07
*During the year following graduation from a Florida
Source: FETPIP
Community College
How do Florida Students Leave Public High Schools?
2006-07
140,000 132,814
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000 31,027
20,000 6,546 9,645
4,004
0
Standard High Special Certificate of GED Dropouts
School Diplomas Completion (Grades 9 - 12)
Diplomas
Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse
What Happens After They Graduated? - Standard Diplomas to
Postsecondary
2006-07 The 2007-08 Academic Year*
PK-12 Adult Programs 13,982
(11%)
Community Colleges 70,140
(53%)
132,814
Diploma
State University System 29,554
Recipients
(22%)
Independent Universities 4,872
(4%)
Outta State 6,641
(5%)
*92,970 Unduplicated Students in Postsecondary – 70%
Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse. Note: These data represent preliminary findings.
Florida 1995-96 High School Graduates
In-State Postsecondary Enrollments Through 2000
N = 89,461 Graduates In
Cohort
740 '98s who
50 left in '99
1,235 '99
45
returnees
Thousands of Students
40 6,586 2,578 new in
45,618 initial new in '98 2,089 returning 2000
35 postsecondary 2,932 new '99
enrollments, 1,682 new
30 3,531 from '98 in 2001
fall '97
35,804 1,627 from '99
2,537 from '98
25 Continue
1170
In fall of C 407
29,010
20 1998 Originals 797
Fall of 24,936
Originals 988
15 1999
fall of 2000 1730
16,205
10
originals
in fall of
5
2001
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program
Florida Public High School Graduates, Class of
1996, Highest Education Credential Attainment as
of 2007
Post BA
Post BA
4%
4%
BA
BA
18%
18%
AA AA
8% 8%
Standard Diploma
66%
Standard Diploma
Col Credit Vocc
Col Credit Vo 66%
2%
2%
VOC
VOC
2%
2%
89,461 Standard Diplomas
(15,478 – 17% Never Enrolled in Florida – 6.48% out
of State)
Source: K20 Education Data Warehouse
Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees
Florida has regularly collected employment placement data since
the late 1980s. These data can be used to identify bachelor’s
degree disciplines where a substantial number off graduates are
placed in Florida jobs plus additional details such as quarterly
earnings. In the example below, disciplines were sorted first by
placement rate, then by earnings.
AVG
DISCIPLINE Total N EMP % EMP EARNINGS
EDUCATION 5135 4035 79% $8,661
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY 439 326 74% $12,944
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND SERVICE 996 718 72% $9,156
BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 15009 9703 65% $9,556
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES 1056 682 65% $11,105
HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED SCIENCE 5166 3330 64% $10,910
LIBERAL/GENERAL STUDIES 1790 1106 62% $7,870
PSYCHOLOGY 4256 2617 61% $6,108
ENGLISH 2126 1300 61% $6,642
MASS COMMUNICATION 3302 2018 61% $6,667
PROTECTIVE SERVICES 2260 1356 60% $7,891
Note: These data are for 2006-07 graduates based on Florida
employment in the late fall of 2007.
Source: FETPIP
Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees
Discipline Industry Grads 2003 2003 2003 2007 2007 2007
Employed Placement Industry Difference Placement Industry Difference
Earnings Average Average Average
Key Sources of Strategies and Direction
• Enterprise Florida, Inc.
o Industry Sectors
o Roadmap to Florida’s Future
• Council of 100, 2006 Report
• Chamber of Commerce Cornerstone Report
• Workforce Florida, Inc., Targeted Industries,
Statewide and Regional
• Florida High-Tech Corridor
• Agency for Workforce Innovation
• Florida Hospital Association and Department of
Health
• State Board of Education, Critical Teachers
• Florida Board of Governors
General Areas of Emphasis
• Business & Global Economics • Sustainable Development
o Financial Services o Energy
o Professional Services o Environment
o Hospitality • Information Technology
• Sciences • Disaster Management
o Life Sciences o Homeland Security
o Biotechnology Mfg. o Hurricane Preparedness
o Scientific & Technical Services • Engineering
• Medical Services o Aerospace/Aviation
o Healthcare o Manufacturing
o Social Services o Construction
• Education • Arts/Communication/Interactive
• Technology Entertainment
o Research and Development
o Emerging Technologies
Concluding Remarks
1. The linkage between employment opportunity, economic prosperity,
and the educational system-particularly postsecondary education-is as
critical to the nation’s future and to Florida’s role in that future.
2. There are sources of data that can and should be used to inform
decisions about the types degrees to be offered that are based on
historical trends, tempered by recent events. Consider:
• occupational projections by the Agency for Workforce Innovation.
• occupational needs analysis conducted by state organizations.
• placement data indicating which disciplines provide educated
workers to which Florida industries.
• regional, as well as state level information from employers and
organizations that represent them.
4. Sources need be considered that look beyond the “status quo” and
relatively short term needs of the existing economy toward a new, more
competitive economy for Florida.