The 2008 Election
Dave Robertson,
Department of Political Science, University of Missouri-St Louis
1. The Context
2. The November 4 Presidential Election
3. The Results
4. The Obama Administration and Older Adults
1. The Context
The 2008 election was going to be
a “change” election
The ―Surge‖ in Iraq worked …
… to allow more American voters
to focus on the economy
just as conditions worsened
Trends in the Most Important Problems, 2005-2008:
Iraq and the Economy
• This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone October
8-11, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,101 adults; MoE 3.
What is the single most important issue in your choice for president?
What does public opinion in a ―change election‖ look like?
October 10-12, 2008: 91% dissatisfied,
7% satisfied
September 8-11, 2008
Americans were very unhappy with the
president of the United States
“Pollster.com” accumulates lots of polls asking the same
question, puts them together on a chart and draws a line
that shows the average.
• Gallup: highest presidential disapproval ratings
John McCain’s
biggest problem
The morning of August 29, 2005
(Congress is doing even worse)
Favorability Ratings of the Two Parties, 2001-2008 (Pew, May 2008)
Add another factor:
―Time for a Change‖
Political Scientist Alan I. Abramowitz:
• ―… there is about a 5 point penalty if you've held the White
House for 8 years or longer‖
The fundamentals: Political Scientists model the
election in the summer of 2008
Both the Democrats and the Republicans had
open contests for the presidential nominations.
No sitting president or vice-president was
running for the presidency.
This situation has
not happened
since 1928
Both our candidates
emerged from bruising nomination battles
With Barack Obama as the
first African-American nominated
by a major party, race was going to be
a factor in a close election
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan. 9-12, 2008.
N=995 registered voters nationwide.
"Would you personally vote for a
presidential candidate who is black,
or not?“
90% yes
6% no
4% unsure
2. The November 4 Election
Headlines that
presidents don’t like to see
To Win the Presidency,
You Need
270 Votes
in the
Electoral
College
The Electoral College, 2008
The states arranged in order of their relative size in the electoral college
Kerry 251 Evs Bush 286 Evs
2004 59,028,109 Popular votes
(48.3% of the 2 party vote)
62,028,285 Popular votes
(50.7% of the 2 party vote)
• Missouri was a
crucial political
battleground
• Late August: Obama stopped in Kansas City
before he going to Denver to accept the
Democratic nomination
• John McCain appeared at a rally in TR Hughes
Stadium in O’Fallon in St. Charles County
John McCain’s
Series of Unfortunate Events
1. The Debates
2. The Campaign
• "When you run a campaign without a strategy
and everything becomes tactical and your
tactics don't work, you respond by finding other
tactics.
• ―Unfortunately, that's helped Barack paint the
guy who is clearly better prepared to be
commander in chief as erratic and not stable.―
Ed Rollins, Assistant to the
President for Political Affairs and
Director of the Office of Political Affairs
in the Reagan Administration.
• ―He has nothing to lose. His campaign is totally
overmatched by Obama’s. The Obama team is well
organized, flush with resources, and the candidate and the
campaign are in sync.
• ―The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now
close to being out-and-out dysfunctional. Its combination
of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence
has become toxic. If the race continues over the next three
weeks to be a conventional one, McCain is doomed.‖
3. Money
• Barack Obama’s campaign had a record-breaking September,
hauling in over a $150 million last month — a new high-water
mark in campaign fundraising history.
• In a video to supporters, Obama Campaign Manager David
Plouffe said a record 632,000 new donors gave to the
campaign … Over three million individual donors have
given so far.
4. Cross-over endorsements
Newspaper
endorsements
2004: Kerry received 213 newspaper endorsements,
Bush received 205
2008:
• Obama 287, McCain 159
• 50 papers that endorsed Bush in 2004 endorsed
Obama this year.
• "I think he is a transformational
figure, he is a new generation
coming into, onto the world stage
and the American stage, and
for that reason I'll be voting
for Senator Barack Obama‖
―Eighty percent (80%) of voters have a favorable view of Powell, who many
Republicans have hoped over the years would seek the party’s presidential
nomination … Just 15% have an unfavorable view of Powell... Rassmussen
Reports
5. Enthusiasm
Democrats were more enthusiastic about this
election than Republicans
• Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll likely voters
– do you enthusiastically support your candidate?
• Significantly more Democrats than Republicans have cast
ballots at this early stage in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico
and Ohio, according to data analyzed by The New York
Times.
6. Abandon Ship!
―Should Republican operatives act as if McCain still can win
next month
or change their message to something like ―Don’t give
Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats a blank check
in November,‖ thereby virtually accepting the inevitability of
McCain’s defeat and giving House and Senate Republicans
a new, potentially effective message in the election’s final
weeks?‖
• A newspaper advertisement that says as
much about the election as anything else
• Newspaper Ad for
Republican incumbent
Lee Terry
(Republican, 2nd district, Nebraska)
The final polls
The final poll map, with one pure tossup state
The Last 4 Missouri Polls
The key question on election day -
– who would actually show up to
vote?
3. The Results
A Wave
Barack Obama received more votes than any
presidential candidate in American history
Richmond, Virginia:
Capital of the Confederate
States of America
EUROPE
Gazeta
Wyborcza,
Poland
The MIDDLE EAST
Al-Riyadh, published in Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia
ASIA
Asahi Shimbun,
published in Tokyo,
Japan
Oriental Morning Post,
published in Shanghai, China
Anandabazar Patrika,
published in Calcutta,
India
Exit
polls
Exit polls
Exit polls
Legislatures
• 2006 & 2008: The Republicans lost
12 Senate seats (3 undecided)
50 House seats
• 1978 & 1980: The Democrats lost
15 Senate seats and
50 House seats
• Republican have no House seats in New England
• At the state level,
Democrats now have 4,090 state legislators,
Republicans have 3,221.
Missouri was decided by fewer
than 2 votes per precinct
Initial Secretary of State count, Nov. 5
• McCain 1,442,673 49.5%
• Obama 1,436,814 49.3%
• Other 37,305 1.3%
Where did the
Democrats and Republicans
improve their vote
in 2008 over 2004?
Republicans got out their voters
in Missouri
• Missouri votes for
John McCain, 2008: 1,442,613
• Missouri votes for
George W. Bush, 2004: 1,455,713
Did racist voters help cost Obama a win in Missouri?
• I’m sure they did
Missouri Exit polls:
• McCain won 93% of white Republican voters
• Obama won only 84% of white Democratic voters,
or about 658,000 votes
• If Obama had won the 89% of white Democratic
voters that John Kerry won in 2004, he would
have won about 40,000 votes
-- more than enough to win Missouri
4. The Obama Administration
& Older Adults
1. Appointees
• Rahm Emanuel
will be Chief of Staff
• The economic team
will include some
Clinton era appointees
• Secretary of the
Treasury? Candidates include
Summers, Geithner, Volker
Appointees
• Secretary of Health
and Human Services?
• Secretary of State?
2. Changes in Policy Sought
• Increased regulation
of the financial sector
to protect retirement accounts
• Efforts to regulate the cost
of prescription drugs
• More efforts to catch
chronic diseases in early stages
• Increase the cap on Social Security-
taxable income
• Eliminate Social Security taxes on those
making less than $50,000 a year.
• Those making $250,000 a year would
have a tax increase
Work to
• increase long term care options
• Ensure heating assistance
• Increase volunteer opportunities
Money Quote
• ―The one thing I’ll say about my grandmother is
that she’s someone who’s a part of the greatest
generation. …
• ―But she was also somebody who was able to
save enough and rely on a combination of
savings, Social Security and pensions so that
she’s been independent and living in her own
place.
• ―And I think it’s important that she was able to
retire and live with dignity and respect and that’s
what I want to fight for, for every American.‖
Thanks very much