Currency & Bond Market Trends — 15 April 1999
Eastern Europe
Czech Koruna Outlook
Czech Koruna/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Czech Rep./U.S. Short-Term Interest-Rate Spread
Koruna/US$ Basis Points
38 2500
36
2000
34
32 1500
30 1000
28
500
26
24 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Czech Republic’s Reserves Czech Republic’s Stock Market
(Official Reserves less Gold) Prague PX 50 Index
US$ bn. 1200
20
18
1000
16
14 800
12
10 600
8
6 400
4
2 200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Czech Republic
Key Economic Indicators and Forecasts
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998f 1999f 2000f
Real GDP Growth (%) 0.5 3.4 6.4 3.9 1.0 -1.0 0.7 1.5
Inflation Rate (%) 7.0 10.1 9.1 8.8 8.5 10.9 7.2 5.5
71
Currency & Bond Market Trends — 15 April 1999
Hungarian Forint Outlook
Hungarian Forint/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Hungary/U.S. Short-Term Interest-Rate Spread
Forint/US$ Basis Points
250 2400
2200
200
2000
150 1800
1600
100
1400
50 1200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Hungary’s Reserves Hungary’s Stock Market
(Official Reserves less Gold) Budapest(BUX) Index
US$ bn. 10000
14
8000
12
6000
10
8 4000
6 2000
4 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Hungary
Key Economic Indicators and Forecasts
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998f 1999f 2000f
Real GDP Growth (%) -0.6 2.9 1.5 1.3 4.4 5.0 4.0 4.8
Inflation Rate (%) 22.5 18.8 28.2 23.6 18.3 14.4 10.5 8.7
Current Acc’t Bal. ($ bn.) -11.0 -9.8 -5.8 -3.8 -2.3 -3.7 -4.9 -5.3
72
Currency & Bond Market Trends — 15 April 1999
Polish Zloty Outlook
Polish Zloty/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Poland/U.S. Short-Term Interest-Rate Spread
Zloty/US$ Basis Points
4.50 3500
4.00 3000
3.50
2500
3.00
2000
2.50
1500
2.00
1.50 1000
1.00 500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Poland’s Reserves Poland’s Stock Market
(Official Reserves less Gold) Warsaw General Index
US$ bn. 25000
30
25 20000
20 15000
15
10000
10
5000
5
0 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Poland
Key Economic Indicators and Forecasts
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998f 1999f 2000f
Real GDP Growth (%) 3.8 5.2 7.0 6.1 6.9 5.4 4.5 4.7
Inflation Rate (%) 36.9 33.3 26.8 20.1 15.0 12.1 8.7 7.2
Current Acc’t Bal. ($ bn.) -2.7 -1.0 4.6 -1.0 -3.2 -4.0 -4.7 -4.8
73
Currency & Bond Market Trends — 15 April 1999
Turkish Lira Outlook
Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Turkey/U.S. Short-Term Interest-Rate Spread
Lira/US$ Basis Points
400,000 40000
30000
300,000
20000
200,000
10000
100,000
0
0 -10000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Turkey’s Reserves Turkey’s Stock Market
(Official Reserves less Gold) Istanbul SE National Index
US$ bn. 5000
30
25 4000
20 3000
15
2000
10
1000
5
0 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Turkey
Key Economic Indicators and Forecasts
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997f 1998f 1999f 2000f
Real GDP Growth (%) 8.1 -6.1 8.0 7.1 7.2 4.0 3.0 4.0
Inflation Rate (%) 66.1 106.3 88.1 80.4 84.5 86.0 60.0 50.0
Current Acc’t Bal. ($ bn.) -3.5 2.0 -1.4 -0.8 -1.5 -2.0 -2.3 -2.4
Trade Balance ($ bn.) -13.2 -18.5 -19.5 -21.0
Int’l Reserves ($ bn.) 12.4 16.4 22.0 24.0
Budget Balance (% GDP) -5.7 -9.0 -11.0 -7.0
74