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					 European Commission project EUROCAT:
  European Catchments Changes and their Impact on the Coast
 Case Study VISCAT:
   The Vistula River Catchment and the Baltic Sea Coastal Zone


  Jędrasik J., Kowalewski M., Ołdakowski B.,
University of Gdansk, Institute of Oceanography

Impact of the Vistula River waters on
the Gulf of Gdańsk during 1994-2002
Plan:

1. The ecohydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea
   General discription
        • ProDeMo model
            –   algorithm + modifications
            –   Calibration, verification, validation
            –   quality evaluation of the model
            –   chosen results

2. Impact of the Vistula River on the Gulf of Gdańsk - examples

3. Conclusions
The ecohydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea


                Meteorological Data:
                Model UMPL (ICM)


     River                              Solar
                3D Hydrodynamic
    Inflows                            Radiation
                     Model
     Data                               Model


    Atmos-       Production and
    pheric       Destruction of
                 Organic Matter
   Deposition   Model (ProDeMo)
Atmosphere                       ProDeMo model
   8                                        17          16
                                                                                                       1 nutrient uptake
              7                  23                                                                    2 grazing
                                                                                                       3 phytoplank. resp.
                                       DISSOLVED                            PHYTOPLANKTON              4 phytoplank. decay
        NUTRIENTS                       OXYGEN                    14                                   5 sedimentation
                                                                                 Blue-green algae      6 nutr. release f. sed
             N-NO3          22                                                                         7atmospheric dep.
                                         20                                      Spring diatoms        8 denitrification
                                                   19              1                                   9 mineralization
             N-NH4                                                               Autumn diatoms        10 zooplankt. resp.
                            3                                                                          11 sed.of P ads. on
                                                                                  Dinoflagellate       particles,
             P-PO4                      DETRITUS                                                       12 detritus sed.
Water                             21          CDETR
                                                             4                     Green algae         13 zooplankt. decay
                                                                                                       14 nitrogen fixation
             Si-SiO4                                                                                   15 nutrient
                             9                NDETR                                   2                deposition


             6         10                                                       ZOOPLANKTON            processes influen.
                                              PDETR          13                                        dissolved oxygen
                                                                                  Zooplankton
                                              SiDETR                                                   16 reaeration,
                                                                                    C:N:P              17 flux to atmo. due
                                                                  18                                   to over saturation
                                                                                                       18 zooplankt. resp.
                                                                                                       19 phytoplank. resp.
        11                                                                                             20 assimilation
                                                 12                         5                          21 mineralization
                                                                                                       22 nitrification
                                                                                     Active layer      23 denitrification
              NSED                     PSED                            SiSED
             15                        15                              15             Inactive layer

Sediment
                                                                Algorithm
               ProDeMo Algorithm                               modification




                   Model Calibration

Adjustment of                Set of the model coefficients
the coefficients
                                                                                Calibration
                              Is the agreement with                           based at stations P1, P110, ZN2
          No                      measurements                                for 1994 - 2002 period
                             (1994-1996) acceptable?


                                         Yes




                               Model verification
                             Are the model assumptions
                                 defined properly?
                                                                   No
                                                                                Verification
                                                                                as asessment of
                                         Yes
                                                                                behavior of the model


                             Model Validation
                       Assessment of the model results based                    Validation
                             on data from 1998-2000
                                                                              test how the model results
                                                                              fit the observation data
                          Model as a reliable tool
                       Applications for the environmental
                       studies and management of the
                       coastal waters in the Gulf of Gdańsk
                Monitoring stations at the southern Baltic

                                                                  Baltic Sea
                                                                 grid step: 5 NM
The hydrodynamic
model is based on
the POM (Princeton
                            Gulf of Gdańsk
                       R4    grid step: 1 NM
Ocean Model).                                           P1



The numerical                        ZN4                P116
application of the
                                    P104
model has been
                             P101
embedded on two                                  P110
nested grids:                  NP
                                                             K
1 NM for                                   ZN2
 the Gulf of Gdańsk
                      Gdańsk               Vistula
in 5 NM for
the Baltic Sea.


                                                                              P140
                                                                                P63
A “sigma”                                                                P5

transformation for                                                     P39

18 layers are used.
                     Validation of the model – station P1 z = 0m
                1994     1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001     2002
              0.12
                                                                      NO3_OBS




 NO3[gm ]
-3
              0.08                                                     NO3_MOD
                                                                    R=0.800
              0.04
              0.00
              0.06
                                                                          NH4_OBS
 NH4[gm ]
-3




              0.04                                                     NH4_MOD
                                                                     R=-0.037

              0.02

              0.00
              0.40
 Ntot [gm ]




              0.30
-3




              0.20                                                        Ntot_OBS
              0.10                                                     Ntot_MOD
                                                                     R=0.480
              0.00

              0.04
                                                                       PO4_OBS
 PO4[gm ]




              0.03
-3




                                                                       PO4_MOD
                                                                       R=0.713
              0.02
              0.01
              0.00
                       Validation of the model – station P1
              0.04




 Ptot [gm ]
              0.03




-3
              0.02                                                     Ptot_OBS
              0.01                                                    Ptot_MOD
                                                                      R=0.434
              0.00
 SiO4[gm ]    0.50
              0.40
-3




              0.30
                                                                      SiO4_OBS
              0.20
                                                                      SiO4_MOD
              0.10                                                     R=0.269
              0.00

              17.0                                                      O2_OBS
 O2[gm ]
-3




                                                                       O2_MOD
              14.0                                                     R=0.852

              11.0
               8.0

              24.0
 Tw[ C]




              16.0
o




                                                                        Tw_OBS
               8.0                                                     Tw_MOD
                                                                       R=0.976
               0.0
              8.00
              7.50
S[psu]




              7.00                                                      S_OBS
              6.50                                                      S_MOD
                                                                        R=0.503
              6.00
                1994     1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000 2001 2002
              Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable states
                        during winter and summer seasons in 2001
                                 -3
                      N-NO 3 [g m ]                                 N-NH4 [g m-3]                                     N-Ntot [g m -3]
               0.00     0.05   0.10   0.15                   0.00     0.03   0.06    0.09                       0.0     0.1     0.2   0.3   0.4

             -10                      obs                  -10                      OBS                   -10
                                      m od                                          MOD
                                 09.02.2001                                  09.02.2001
             -30                                           -30                                            -30




                                              Depth [m]
Depth [m]




                                                                                             Depth [m]
             -50                                           -50                                            -50

             -70                                           -70                                            -70
                                                                                                                          OBS
             -90                                           -90                                            -90             MOD
                                                                                                                  09.02.2001
            -110                                          -110                                           -110
                                                                               -3
                                 -3
                      N-NO 3 [g m ]                                 N-NH 4 [g m ]                                     N-Ntot [g m-3]
               0.00    0.05    0.10   0.15                   0.00    0.03    0.06    0.09                       0.0     0.1     0.2   0.3   0.4

             -10                      obs
                                                           -10                       OBS                  -10
                                      m od                                           MOD
                                 21.08.2001                                     21.08.2001
             -30                                           -30                                            -30
                                              Depth [m]




                                                                                             Depth [m]
Depth [m]




             -50                                           -50                                            -50


             -70                                           -70                                            -70
                                                                                                                          OBS
             -90                                           -90                                            -90             MOD
                                                                                                                  21.08.2001

            -110                                          -110                                           -110
            Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable states
                      during winter and summer seasons in 2001
                                  -3                                                  -3
                      P-PO4 [g m ]                                       P-Ptot [g m ]                                                         -3
                                                                                                                                 Si-SiO4 [g m ]
               0.00        0.10          0.20                      0.0         0.1           0.2
                                                                                                                           0.0     0.5   1.0    1.5   2.0
             -10                                             -10
                                       OBS                                                  OBS                      -10                        OBS
                                       MOD                                                  MOD
                                                                                                                                                MOD
             -30                  09.02.2001                                           09.02.2001
                                                             -30                                                     -30                   09.02.2001
Depth [m]




                                                Depth [m]




                                                                                                        Depth [m]
             -50                                             -50                                                     -50

             -70                                             -70                                                     -70

             -90                                             -90                                                     -90

            -110                                            -110                                                    -110
                                  -3                                                  -3                                                       -3
                      P-PO4 [g m ]                                       P-Ptot [g m ]                                           Si-SiO4 [g m ]
               0.00        0.10          0.20                      0.0          0.1               0.2                      0.0     0.4   0.8    1.2     1.6

             -10                                             -10                          OBS                        -10
                                   OBS                                                                                                          OBS
                                   MOD                                                    MOD                                                   MOD
                              21.08.2001                                             21.08.2001                                            21.08.2001
             -30                                             -30                                                     -30
Depth [m]




                                                Depth [m]




                                                                                                        Depth [m]
             -50                                             -50                                                     -50


             -70                                             -70                                                     -70


             -90                                             -90                                                     -90


            -110                                            -110                                                    -110
             Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable states
                       during winter and summer seasons in 2001
                                         -3                                            o                                                     -3
                        O-O2 [g m ]                                               Tw [ C]                                             S [g m ]
                   -5      0         5        10   15                      0      5     10      15       20                  0.00     4.00  8.00   12.00

             -10                                                     -10                                                   -10           OBS
                             OBS                                                                 OBS
                             MOD                                                                 MOD                                     MOD
                        09.02.2001                                                          09.02.2001                              09.02.2001
             -30                                                     -30                                                   -30




                                                                                                              Depth [m]
Depth [m]




                                                        Depth [m]
             -50                                                     -50                                                   -50


             -70                                                     -70                                                   -70                             The vertical
                                                                                                                                                           distributions
             -90                                                     -90                                                   -90                             of the
                                                                                                                                                           modelled
            -110                                                    -110                                                  -110                             parameters
                                         -3                                            o                                                     -3
                        O-O2 [g m ]                                               Tw [ C]                                             S [g m ]             follows the
                   -5      0         5        10   15                      0      5     10      15       20                  0.00     4.00  8.00   12.00   observations,
                                                                                                                           -10
                                                                                                                                                           however
             -10             OBS                                     -10                                                                 OBS
                                                                                    OBS
                                                                                                                                         MOD
                                                                                                                                                           better
                             MOD                                                    MOD
                        21.08.2001                                             21.08.2001                                  -30
                                                                                                                                    21.08.2001             agreements
             -30                                                     -30
                                                                                                                                                           have been
                                                                                                              Depth [m]
Depth [m]




                                                        Depth [m]




             -50                                                     -50                                                   -50
                                                                                                                                                           achieved in
                                                                                                                                                           the upper
             -70                                                     -70                                                   -70
                                                                                                                                                           layer than in
                                                                                                                                                           the layer
             -90                                                     -90                                                   -90                             below the
                                                                                                                                                           halocline
            -110                                                    -110                                                  -110                             (60-70 m).
                                                                              Quality of the ProDeMo model
                                                                       integral square error [Ise]
special coeff. of correlation [Rs]

                                       0.0 0.2                 0.4    0.6       0.8      1.0     1.2          1.4     1.6   1.8      2.0
                                     1.0 SO2 T SiO4               NO
                                                               Ntot 3
                                                                     Ptot                                excellent
                                     0.9                           PO4
                                                                                                                                           An excellent
                                                                                                              good                         agreement for
                                     0.8                                          NH4
                                                                                                                                  PO4      salinity,
                                                                                                                                  Ptot
                                     0.7                                                                                          SiO4
                                                                                                                                           dissolved oxygen
                                                                                                                                  O2       and temperature.
                                            excellent




                                     0.6                                                                                          T
                                                        good



                                                                                                                                  S
                                                                                                                                  NO3      Other compared
                                     0.5                                                                                          Ntot     parameters lie
                                                                                  for all variables at z = 0m                     NH4
                                     0.4                                                                                                   in the good range

                                                                      integral square error [Ise]                                          except nitrate
                                                                                                                                           nitrogen as
special coeff. of correlation [Rs]




                                       0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
                                                                                                                                           acceptable and
                                            S O2T
                                     1.0                                                                            excellent              ammonium
                                                               Ntot
                                                                                                                                           nitrogen low
                                     0.9                               Ptot PO4
                                                                                                                                           satisfactory.
                                                                        SiO4                                         good
                                     0.8                                                               NO 3                        PO4
                                                                                                                                   Ptot
                                     0.7                                                                                           SiO4
                                                                                                                                   O2
                                            excellent




                                                                                                                    NH 4           T
                                     0.6                                                                                           S
                                                        good




                                                                                                                                   NO 3
                                     0.5                                                                                           Ntot
                                                                            for all variables at whole profiles                    NH 4
                                     0.4
           Mean concentrations of the modelled parameters for 15th June 1999

                                                                                                                 Dissolved oxygen
                Temperature [°C]                                         Salinity [PSU]                               [g m-3]

               11 13 15 17 19 21 23                                      5   10   15   20   25                     8   9         10     11




  N-NO3 [g m-3]                           N-NH4 [g m-3]                                          P-PO4 [g m-3]               Si-SiO4 [g m-3]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25              0    0.005   0.01   0.015   0.02                            0.01    0.03             0.1        0.4    0.7   1   1.3
                               Variation in biomass and structure of phytoplankton
                                            modelled for 15th June 1999
 Spring diatoms                                      Green algae                                       Blue-green algae                          Primary production
biomass [gC m-3]                                  biomass [gC m-3]                                     biomass [gC m-3]                              [gC m-2d-1]

0   0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2                       0   0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2                          0     0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2             0.1   0.3   0.5   0.7




                      Dinoflagellate                                             Autumn diatoms                                           Zooplankton
                    biomass [gC m-3]                                            biomass [gC m-3]                                       biomass [gC m-3]
                   0    0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2                             0      0.05   0.1   0.15       0.2                             0.1   0.2
                                Distribution of phytoplankton at Gdansk Deep
                                        station P1 in period 1994 - 2002


              16

              14       Autumn diatoms
                       Blue-green lgae
              12       Green algae
                       Dinoflagellates
              10       Spring Diatoms
[gC m-2 ]




               8

               6

               4

               2

               0

                1994          1995       1996   1997   1998      1999      2000      2001     2002

            The vegetation seasons start with the high blooms of diatoms during the spring.
            During the summer dinoflagellates and green algae dominates.

            The blue-green algae are able to assimilate the nitrogen from the atmosphere. Their appearance
            varies from year to year since they prefer higher water temperature and solar radiation.

            Autumn diatoms starts to grow in September and they dominate trough whole autumn.
                    Annual input of the Vistula River
                       into the Gulf of Gdańsk
                               6
         0.4       PTOT [10 kg]                                            6
                                                          13.2 NTOT [10 kg]
                                                                               Vistula the second largest river of
                                                                               the Baltic Sea
                                                                               introduces into the Gulf of Gdańsk
                                                 3
                   5.2         5.5     Q [km ]
                                                                       136.2   85% of discharged fresh waters

                                                                               90% of nitrogen compounds
                                                                                    (it takes part 15% of N
                                                36.3
                                                                                    in the Baltic)
                                                                               23% is retained at the Gulf

                                                                               92% of phosphorus compounds
                                                                                    (it takes part 20% of P
Annual input of the Vistula and other rivers into the Gulf of Gdańsk                in the Baltic)
                                                                               34% is retained at the Gulf
   Distributions of N-NO3 and P-PO4 in crossection through the Gulf of
Gdańsk from mouth of the Vistula River to the station P1 at 4th March 1995
                       0                                                                                   0


                    -2 0                                                                                -2 0




                                                                                       D e p th [m ]
 D e p th [m ]




                    -4 0                                                                                -4 0


                    -6 0                                                                                -6 0


                                                                                                        -8 0                                             P O 4 [g m 3 ]
                    -8 0                                              N O 3 [g m 3 ]


                                                                                                       -1 0 0       o b s e rv e d                              0 .1 2
                   -1 0 0
                                o b s e rv e d                               0 .6
                                                                                                                                                                0 .1 0
                            0       10      20    30      40     50          0 .5                               0      10      20     30     40     50

                                          D is ta n c e [k m ]                                                                                                  0 .0 8
                                                                             0 .4                                            D is ta n c e [k m ]
                            0        10     20     30     40     50                                             0      10      20     30     40     50
                                                                                                                                                                0 .0 6
                        0                                                    0 .3                          0

                                                                                                                                                                0 .0 4
                                                                             0 .2
                     -2 0                                                                               -2 0
                                                                                                                                                                0 .0 2
                                                                             0 .1
                                                                                       D e p th [m ]    -4 0
   D e p th [m ]




                     -4 0                                                                                                                                       0 .0 0
                                                                             0 .0

                                                                                                        -6 0
                     -6 0

                                                                                                        -8 0
                     -8 0

                                                                                                       -1 0 0       m o d e lle d
                   -1 0 0
                                 m o d e lle d
                                                                                                   T e m p e ra tu re
                                                                                                         [1 m ]
                                                                                                                                                                      Spreading of the Vistula waters
                                                                                                                                                                           at the Gulf of Gdansk
                                                                                                                                                                       during 11 April – 10 May 2000
                                                              [c m s -1 ]                                                                               [°C ]
    0         5           10       15          20   25                                   5        6        7        8        9        10       11

                      N -N O 3                                                                                 N -N H 4
                          [1 m ]                                                                                  [1 m ]


                                                                                                                                                                       The hydrodynamics influences
                                                                                                                                                                       on the nutrient and phytoplankton
                                                                                                                                                                       distributions.

0           0 .2            0 .4          0 .6         0 .8    [g m -3 ]          0                   0 .0 3            0 .0 6              0 .0 9      [g m -3 ]
                                                                                                                                                                       During the spring season influence
                          P -P O 4                                                                             S i-S iO 4
                                                                                                                                                                       of the Vistula River waters on the
                           [1 m ]                                                                                 [1 m ]                                               nutrient concentrations are even at
                                                                                                                                                                       the open waters of the Gulf of
                                                                                                                                                                       Gdańsk.

                                                                                                                                                                       11 April – 10 May 2000, the main
                                                                                                                                                                       pathway of the Vistula River water -
                                                                 -3                                                                                           -3
0              0 .0 1                 0 .0 2          0 .0 3 [g m ]               0 .1            0 .1 5           0 .2            0 .2 5            0 .3 [g m ]
                                                                                                                                                                       the North-West direction.
    P rim a ry p ro d u c tio n                                                   P h y to p la n k to n b io m a s s
                                                                                                 [1 m ]




     0 .3          0 .6        0 .9       1 .2      1 .5       [g C m -2 d -1 ]          0 .0 5            0 .1           0 .1 5            0 .2        [g C m -3 ]
               Sequence of surface distribution
     of phytoplankton biomass, nitrates and phosphates
at the Gulf of Gdansk between February 22 – March 27 1995
                                        Conclusions
ProDeMo model calibrated, verified and validated
using monitoring data for 9 years period 1994-2002, resulted in the model obtained evidences
(high statistical evaluation) which permit to consider it as reliable tool for studding the coastal
processes in the Gulf of Gdańsk.

The model has properly described the seasonal distribution of nutrients, temperature and
dissolved oxygen, however near the bottom it was overestimated.

Other compared parameters lie in the good range of quality of model except nitrate nitrogen as
acceptable and ammonium nitrogen low satisfactory.

The biomass distributions of the five phytoplankton groups as well as time and places of their
blooms appeared reliable.

Impact of the Vistula River on the Gulf of Gdańsk
From among various effects of the Vistula River discharge on the environmental state of the
coastal waters are:
pathways of the Vistula River waters in the Gulf
temporal and spatial dynamics of nutrients
blooms and seasonal variations of phytoplankton biomass

				
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