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					Climate Change Impact Adaptation and Policy
                 in China



                Lin Erda, Ma Shiming




    Agroenvironment & Sustainable Development
                     Institute,
     Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
                                                     IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO
                                                                                                                                                                        Extreme and




                                                                   OBSERVED
                                                                                                                                           Risks of large scale         irreversible effects
                                                                                 Some increase in extreme climate events
                                                                                                                                             discontinuities
                                                                                 Small positive or negative net monetary
                                                                                                                                  Net negative monetary impacts Aggregate impacts
                                                                                impacts (most people adversely affected)
                                                                                                                                                                        Distribution of
                                                                                     Net negative for some regions                 Net negative for many regions
                                                                                                                                                                        impacts
                                                                                         Risks to some systems                         Risks to many systems            Unique and
                                                                                                                                                                        threatened systems


                            6
                                                                                                                                                                        IPCC High
Temperature anomaly ( oC)




                            5       Global mean annual temperature
                                     change relative to preindustrial
                            4

                            3

                            2                                                                                                                                            IPCC Low

                            1

                            0
                             1900                  1950                       2000                                     2050                                       2100


                                                                                                                                                                         Extreme and
                                                                   OBSERVED




                                                                                                Some increase in extreme climate events                                  irreversible effects
                                                                                     Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected)    Aggregate impacts
                                                                                                                                                                         Distribution of
                                                                                                   Net negative for some regions                                         impacts
                                                                                                                                                                         Unique and
                                                                                                        Risks to some systems                                             threatened systems

                                                     IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO
China’s Temperature Change
        Frequent occurrence of abnormal
              weather conditions

 Occurring frequencies of droughts, floods and typhoon in
  some regions of China are correlated with the occurrence of
  the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 The summer rain belt has moved further to the south. The
  precipitation has reduced in northern China
 The winter becomes warmer and the summer becomes
  cooler;
 The typhoons reached to China are not so frequently as
  before.
         Observed impacts of changes in
           regional climate warming

 are related to increasing yield trends in Northeast China,
 lengthening growing seasons in northern China,
  improved cotton quality in Xingjiang, and
 expansion and advanced phonologies
  of agricultural pests.
 rice, wheat, and corn production would meet adverse
  impacts due to shorter growth period caused by
  continuous warming climate, but cotton different.
China’s Rice Production and Yield




               Yield (t/ha)
China rice production
China wheat production
China maize production
The Possible Impacts on Main Crops in China 2030




                                                         Increase decrease
                                                                                               Irri S Corn
                                                                                               Summer Corn
                                                                                               Irri. S Corn
                                                                                               Spring Corn
                                                                                               Late Rice
                                                                                               Early Rice
                                                                                               Single Rice
                                                                                                Irri S Wheat
                                                                                               Spring Wheat
                                                                                               Irrigated Wheat
                                                                                                Wheat




                                                                          -20%

                                                                                 -40%

                                                                                        -60%
                                                   60%

                                                         40%

                                                               20%

                                                                     0%
            Concerning Issues


During the 1990s, the rice production and productivity in
Asia has grown at a much slower rate than population
The current yield gap ranges from 10 to 60% between
attainable and economically exploitable yields depending
on the ecosystems and countries
The decline in cereal yield is due to shortening of growth
period, decrease in photosynthesis ability, and increase in
respiration demanding more water availability
Asian rice and other crops monoculture may be reaching
productivity limits due to adverse impacts on soils
     Legislation, policy and sustainable
                development

 China has adopted 26 sets of laws and
  regulations in the agricultural sector.
 Those laws and regulations have played an
  important role in promoting sustainable
  development in agriculture.
 They also play an important role in adaptation
  of climate change
          The Agricultural Law

 The Agricultural Law, adopted in July 1993, is
  very conducive to a sustained and coordinated
  development in agriculture. Since 1993, an annual
  conference on rural development is convened each
  year by the central government, at which policies
  and measures aimed at protecting and encouraging
  farmer’s initiatives and increasing agricultural
  production are adopted.
 1. Maintain the system of household
contract responsibility with remuneration
             linked to output

 The extension of the contract period to up to
  30 years has been embraced enthusiastically
  by the farmers at large, who are now
  motivated to increase agricultural production.
  So farmers have became a main bodies to
  adapt agriculture to CC
       Adaptation policies for agriculture

2. Promoting the development of the agricultural
     production
3.   Farmland water conservancy and shelter forest
4.    Mechanization and Modernization of Agricultural
     Production
5.   Agricultural insurance undertakings
6.   Increasing allocations for agriculture
7.   Enhancing science, technology and education
8.   Resources use and the protection of rural environment
9.   Prohibiting deforestation and the practice of slash-and-
     burn
         The Forestry Law of China

 Administrative rules and regulations such as Rules
  Governing the Implementation of the Forestry Law,
  Regulations on the Prevention of Forest Fires and Forest
  Pest Control Regulations were adopted 15 years ago. Up till
  now, China has issued four sets of forestry laws and legal
  instruments, 4 forestry administrative regulations, about 60
  forestry sector rules and more than 200 local forestry
  regulations and local government rules. These laws, rules
  and regulations have played an important role in promoting
  sustainable forestry development and adaptation to CC.
        China’s policies, laws and
    regulations on water conservation:

1. Water conservation
2. Flood control
3. Soil conservation
4. Water pollution control act
A UK-China Cooperation Project
 To provide climate change scenarios for China,
 based on selected IPCC SRES emission scenarios
 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.
 To provide socioeconomic scenarios for China
 relevant to agriculture, for the 2020s and 2050s.
 To provide an overview of the overall effects of
 climate change on agriculture in China, including
 economic costs of damages and /or adaptation.
              Climate Change
            Scenarios for China            Boundary Map of China



                                           Grid partition of China



Seven different climate scenarios (baseline,
2025, 2050 and 2080 under two emission Land use map
scenarios (A2 and B2 SRES)
                                           FAO Soil data
The resolution of climate scenarios for
China is 50×50km with 19 levels in the
atmosphere                                 Crop Variety and
                                           Planting details
Simulation period: 1961-1990, 2071-2100.
For the period of 2011-2040, 2041-2071,
                                           Yield change map
can be get from pattern scaling
Modeling results——Land use Change
           Scenario(2010)
       Tilled land, grain output and demand during
                     2000-2080(High)
•Yea •populati •land(x104)   •Output   •Demand   •Import/      •Per
  r     on                   (x108)    (x108)    Demand       capita
      •(x108                                      (%)        demand
        )                                                   (kilogra
                                                            m/person)
•200    •12.65   •9546.65    •5.084     •4.8                  •380
  0
•201    •14.03    •9250       •5.34     •5.40     •1.11       •385
  0
•202    •14.95    •9070       •5.50     •5.83     •5.66       •390
  0
•203    •15.48    •8890       •5.67     •6.20     •8.55       •400
  0
•204    •15.70    •8720       •5.84     •6.52     •9.82       •415
  0
•205    •15.69    •8550       •6.02     •6.66     •9.61       •425
Climate change scenarios
                                                       Flowchart
                               The scale of China boundary map is 1:1,000,000
 Boundary Map of China
                               The resolution of the cells is 50*50KM, which is
 Grid partition of China       corresponding to the climate change scenarios.
                               Current and future land use map, the future land use map
      Land use map             were predicted through the GDP and population
GIS technology
      FAO soil data            Get the soil attributes of physical and chemical
                               characters, using the central soil model, adjusting the soil
Crop Variety Distribution
                               organic carbon under different climate scenarios.
Sowing date, Planting type
                               Crop variety and planting details will distributed to every
                               cell. Form the data base for running crop model.

 Running regional crop model



  Yield Change of every cell



        validating
Yield Change Map all over China
     Highlights of the projects so far

 The more exact mapping results show the larger
  difference of crop yield distribution with the
  previous results; even involving adaptation climate
  change still will result in a reduction of between 5
  and 10% in production of main crops in China in
  the next 30 years
 .A further adverse impacts will happen, large
  adaptation costs will need, but will not seriously
  influence food security
    Possible Adaptation for Agriculture

•Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation
•develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties
•Promote irrigation and water-saving technologies
•shift from conventional crops to intensive
greenhouse agriculture;
•Adopt heat-resistant crops, water-efficient cultivars
with resistance to pests and diseases
Distribution Changes of Pinus
   tabulaeformis Carr油松
   Possible Adaptation for Forestry

•Improving the management of the ecological system
of natural forests
•Selecting improved varieties of trees
•Integrated management of forest diseases , pets and
weeds
•Improving the control of forest fires
        Possible Adaptation for Water


•Improving the protection and maintenance of facilities
•Intensify scientific research on water resources
•Strengthening flood-control ability of dams and river dykes
•Establishing modern forecasting, assessment systems
•Protecting water environment and preventing pollution
•Tree-planting and afforestation to prevent soil erosion
•Establishing interregional water diversion
  Significant actions taken by

 the strengthening of research on (1) the science of
  the climate system and climatic change, (2)
  greenhouse gas emissions and the national
  inventory, (3) impacts on social and economic
  development, and (4) response strategies. China
  has also established a high-level cross-ministerial
  body, the National Coordinating Committee on
  Climate Change Policy, to address policy issues.
Has already made contributions

 to alleviating the longer-term trends of
  climate change by such national measures
  and "win-win" strategies as population
  control, energy conservation, renewable
  energy development, and large-scale
  afforestation
A targeted research will need

 A Capacity built and results obtained in V & A area
  will serve as a basis for sectoral vulnerability and
  adaptation analyses and input for climate change
  related policy, some of which may be included in
  the "general description of steps to implement the
  Convention" required in National Communications

				
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posted:10/19/2011
language:English
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